FDU Poll: Support for Ranked Choice Voting Falls Short in New Jersey

 

 

 

Less partisan residents much more likely to support a change

Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, NJ, October 24, 2023 – As states and municipalities around the country move to ranked choice voting systems, including in New York, New Jersey residents are against changing voting rules here. According to the latest results from the FDU Poll, supporters of a change to ranked choice voting are outnumbered by opponents by a five-point margin, though those people who are less strongly tied to the parties are more likely to support such a change.

“Voters in New Jersey aren’t happy with the direction of the state, and think our politicians are corrupt,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of Government and Politics at FDU, and the director of the poll. “But that doesn’t mean that they want the system to change in a way that could hurt their parties.”

In ranked choice voting systems, voters don’t cast a vote for one candidate, but rank several candidates in order from most preferred to least. If no candidate gets a majority of first place votes, the candidate with the least number of first place votes is eliminated, and the votes of their supporters go to whoever those individual voters selected as their second-choice candidate. Votes are re-allocated in this way until one candidate has a majority.

Proponents of ranked choice voting argue that it encourages voters to cast a ballot for the candidate they like best, rather than who they think can win, and therefore helps smaller political parties, and is more likely to elect consensus candidates, who might not be everyone’s favorite, but are broadly acceptable. Opponents claim that it is too complicated for voters and could drive down participation.

Ranked choice voting systems are used today for elections statewide in Maine and Alaska, and in local elections around the country, including in New York City. Bills that have been introduced in the New Jersey State Assembly (A5039 and A5410) and Senate (S3369 and S3784) would allow for ranked choice voting in elections for US President in the state, as well as in municipal and school board elections. Similar bills have been introduced in previous sessions but have not progressed to votes on the floor of either chamber.

Just thirty seven percent of New Jersey residents say that they support a shift to ranked choice voting, with 42 percent say that the state shouldn’t switch. Support is highest among Democrats, who support ranked choice voting by nine points (43 to 34), but the idea is underwater among independents (39 percent supporting, 45 percent opposing) and strongly opposed among Republicans, with just 23 percent supporting.

“In places where ranked choice voting has been adopted, the major political parties have pushed back hard,” said Cassino. “Absent overwhelming public support, there’s no way legislators are going to do something that hurts their own parties, and that support just isn’t there.”

Support for ranked choice voting is much higher among residents who are less strongly attached to their political parties, with people who consider themselves independents who “lean” towards one party or the other much more likely to support changing to a ranked choice voting system. For instance, among strong Democrats (those who say that they’re Democrats, rather than saying that they “lean” towards the party), 38 percent support ranked choice voting, and 38 percent oppose. But among leaning Democrats, support is 62 percent. Similarly, strong only 19 percent of strong Republicans support ranked choice voting, but support is 34 percent among Republican leaners.

“Voters understand that ranked choice voting is likely to hurt the major parties in New Jersey,” said Cassino. “So it makes sense that people who are less satisfied with the parties are going to be more likely to support a change.”

Support for ranked choice voting is also much higher among young voters than older ones, with 44 percent of residents under 45 supporting the change, compared with just 24 percent of those 65 and over.

Methodology

The survey was conducted between October 6 and October 14, 2023, using a certified list of adult New Jersey residents carried out by Braun Research of Princeton, New Jersey. Lists of residents were obtained from Aristotle International of Washington, DC. Respondents were randomly chosen from the list, and contacted via either live caller telephone interviews, or text-to-web surveys sent to cellular phones, resulting in an overall sample of 813 respondents. 178 of the surveys were carried out via live caller telephone interviews on landlines, 250 on live caller interviews to cell phones, and the remainder (385) were done on a web platform via weblinks sent via SMS to cell phones. Surveys were conducted only in English.

The data were weighted to be representative of the population of adult NJ residents, as of the 2020 US Census. The weights used, like all weights, balance the demographic characteristics of the sample to match known population parameters. The weighted results used here are balanced to match parameters for sex, age, education and race/ethnicity.

SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS extension module that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure, was used to produce final weights. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis helps to ensure that the demographic characteristics of the sample approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population. The size of these weights is used to construct the measure of design effects, which indicate the extent to which the reported results are being driven by the weights applied to the data, rather than found in the data itself. Simply put, these design effects tell us how many additional respondents would have been needed to get the weighted number of respondents across weighted categories: larger design effects indicate greater levels of under-representation in the data. In this case, calculated design effects are approximately 1.3.

All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 813 residents is +/-3.5 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Including the design effects, the margin of error would be +/-4.6 percentage points, though the figure not including them is much more commonly reported.

This error calculation does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, differences in translated forms, or context effects. While such errors are known to exist, they are often unquantifiable within a particular survey, and all efforts, such as randomization and extensive pre-testing of items, have been used to minimize them.

Weighted Telephone Sample Characteristics

813 New Jersey Residents

Figures are weighted to overall voter characteristics from the 2020 US Census. Figures do not include individuals who declined to answer demographic items.

 Man                                

47%                 N = 385

Woman                            

51%                 N = 414

Some Other Way          

1%                  N = 7

 

18-30                          

19%                N = 155

31-44                          

31%                 N = 250

45-64                          

31%                 N = 250

65+                              

19%                 N = 152

 

Democrat (with leaners)             

41%                 N = 334

Independent                                 

15%                 N = 123

Republican (with leaners)          

29%                 N = 235

 

White                                           

57%                N = 466

Black                                              

13%                N = 103

Hispanic/Latino/a                                     

19%                N = 158

Asian                                       

9%                  N = 69

Other/Multi-racial                                    

2%                  N = 17

 

No college degree                      

54%                N = 439

College degree or more             

45%                N = 363

 

Question Wording and Order

First off, we’d like to ask you a few questions about the government here in New Jersey.

NJ1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Phil Murphy is handling his job as governor?

1. Approve
2. Disapprove
3. Not Sure/Don’t Know [Vol]
4. Refused [Vol]

 

[Half of Respondents gets NJ8-10 here, half get them after NJ7]

NJ8. Recently, New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez has been indicted on corruption charges involving bribes from foreign officials to him and his wife. Menendez has said that he is innocent of the charges. Menendez is up for re-election next year. Many elected officials in New Jersey have called for him to resign, even though he has not yet been convicted of any crimes. What do you think? Should Menendez resign, or should he serve out his term?

1. Menendez should resign
2. Menendez should not resign/Should serve out his term
3. [DK/REF]

 

NJ9. Do you think that the politicians in New Jersey, on the whole, are…

1. Not at all corrupt
2. A little corrupt
3. Somewhat corrupt
4. Very corrupt

1. Not Sure/Don’t Know [Vol]
2. Refused [Vol]

 

NJ10. How about the politicians that represent you in state and local government? Would you say they are…

1. Not at all corrupt
2. A little corrupt
3. Somewhat corrupt
4. Very corrupt

1. Not Sure/Don’t Know [Vol]
2. Refused [Vol]

 

NJ2. [Half get this question here, half after NJ4a] In recent years, there has been a movement to give parents more control over what is, and is not, taught in public schools in New Jersey. How much influence do you think parents of K through 12 students should have over what’s taught in their schools?

1. Parents should be able to decide what schools teach
2. Parents should have some influence over what schools teach
3. Parents should not really influence what schools teach
4. [Not sure/Don’t Know]

NJ4. We will soon have elections for the state assembly and state Senate here in New Jersey. Most people don’t vote in these statewide elections. How likely do you think it is that you’ll vote in this election?

1. Almost certain
2. Very Likely
3. Somewhat Likely
4. Not Very Likely
5. Not at all likely
6. Already Voted
7. [DK/REF]

NJ4a. In the upcoming NJ legislative election in your district, do you think that you’ll vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate, or are you not sure? [Shuffle options]

1. Republican Candidate
2. Democratic Candidate
3. Not Sure
4. [DK/REF]

NJ5. Some states have adopted ranked choice voting systems. Under ranked choice voting, voters can vote for multiple candidates, putting them in order from their favorite down to their least favorite. [Supporters of this system say that it helps smaller parties compete and more fairly represents what voters want]. [Opponents say that it can be confusing for voters and may reduce voter turnout]. What do you think? Should New Jersey adopt ranked choice voting? [Arguments are presented in random order]

1. New Jersey should adopt ranked choice voting
2. New Jersey should not adopt ranked choice voting
3. Not Sure
4. [DK/REF]

NJ6. It has been suggested that the state could get more money for New Jersey transit by restoring a tax on corporations in the state and dedicating that money to New Jersey Transit. Would you support or oppose such a plan?

1. Support
2. Oppose
3. [DK/REF]

NJ7. It has also been suggested that the state could get more money for New Jersey Transit by charging a special toll to New York residents who drive into New Jersey. Would you support or oppose such a plan?

1. Support
2. Oppose
3. [DK/REF]

Further questions held for later release

 Region Classifications

Northwest: Hunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Sussex, and Warren Counties
Northeast: Bergen and Passaic Counties
Urban Core: Essex, Hudson, Mercer, Middlesex, and Union Counties
South: Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, and Salem Counties
Coast: Atlantic, Cape May, Monmouth, and Ocean Counties

Release Tables

Should New Jersey adopt ranked choice voting?
	Overall	Dem	Indp	Rep
Should Adopt	37%	43%	39%	23%
Should Not Adopt	42%	34%	45%	58%
Not Sure	19%	21%	15%	16%
[Vol] don’t Know/Refused	3%	2%	1%	3%

 

Should New Jersey adopt ranked choice voting?
	Overall	18-30	31 to 44	45 to 64	65+
Should Adopt	37%	43%	44%	33%	24%
Should Not Adopt	42%	32%	31%	46%	64%
Not Sure	19%	23%	22%	18%	11%
[Vol] don’t Know/Refused	3%	3%	2%	4%	1%

 

Should New Jersey adopt ranked choice voting?
	Overall	Str Dem	Lean Dem	Lean Rep	Str Rep
Should Adopt	37%	38%	62%	34%	19%
Should Not Adopt	42%	38%	21%	47%	62%
Not Sure	19%	21%	16%	16%	15%
[Vol] don’t Know/Refused	3%	2%	1%	3%	3%