FDU Poll: Strong Support for Corporate Tax to Fund NJ Transit

 

 

Strong Support for Corporate Tax to Fund NJ Transit

Retaliatory transit tax on New Yorkers less popular

Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, NJ, October 20, 2023 – With NJ Transit facing budget shortfalls of up to a billion dollars in upcoming years, Garden State residents favor some plans to dedicate revenue to the transit agency, but not others. According to the latest results from the FDU Poll, there is strong support among New Jersey residents for restoring a corporate tax surcharge and dedicating the revenues to NJ Transit, but less support for a toll on New Yorkers that could serve the same function.

“The pandemic and the federal money it brought eased the pressure on NJ Transit for a couple of years,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of Government and Politics at FDU, and the director of the poll. “But the problems haven’t gone away, and work from home means that they’re only going to get worse.”

In 2023, a temporary corporate tax surcharge of 2.5 percent on profits over $1 million, which had been in place since 2020, was allowed to lapse. The tax surcharge brought in more than half a billion dollars per year, and the transportation plan released by Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop as part of his run for governor proposes to restore the surcharge, and earmark the revenue for NJ Transit. This proposal is broadly popular in the state, with 54 percent of residents saying that they support it, and only 29 percent opposing.

Support for restoring the tax and using it to fund NJ Transit is highest among Democrats (73 percent), but strong among independents (52 percent support, 33 percent oppose), though underwater among Republicans in the state (52 percent oppose). Black residents are also more likely to support it (73 percent) than whites (47 percent). Interestingly, there is little regional variation in support for the idea, with voters in the urban core counties and in South Jersey being about equally likely to support it.

“The fact that this is a restored tax, rather than a new one, helps with support,” said Cassino. “Democrats also tend to favor taxes on corporations, and giving the money to NJ Transit is just the icing on the cake.”

A separate question asked about a proposal to levy new tolls on New York drivers coming into New Jersey, mirroring the proposed congestion pricing on New Jersey drivers entering parts of Manhattan. A proposal to dedicate the revenue from such a toll to NJ Transit is less popular than funding through a corporate tax: 43 percent support it, with 45 percent opposed.

As with the corporate tax hike, the proposal is favored by Democrats and independents, but by a much closer margin: 45 percent to 41 percent among Democrats, and 49 percent to 40 percent among independents. Republicans oppose the idea by a 55 to 37 margin. The big divide on this question is driven by region: residents in the urban core counties favor it by a nine-point margin, 48 percent to 39 percent, while residents of the South Jersey and coastal counties oppose it.

“People who are going to be paying $20 a day for congestion pricing want the state to do something about it,” said Cassino. “But if you’re in Cherry Hill, New York tolls don’t seem quite as important.” 

Methodology

The survey was conducted between October 6 and October 14, 2023, using a certified list of adult New Jersey residents carried out by Braun Research of Princeton, New Jersey. Lists of residents were obtained from Aristotle International of Washington, DC. Respondents were randomly chosen from the list, and contacted via either live caller telephone interviews, or text-to-web surveys sent to cellular phones, resulting in an overall sample of 813 respondents. 178 of the surveys were carried out via live caller telephone interviews on landlines, 250 on live caller interviews to cell phones, and the remainder (385) were done on a web platform via weblinks sent via SMS to cell phones. Surveys were conducted only in English.

The data were weighted to be representative of the population of adult NJ residents, as of the 2020 US Census. The weights used, like all weights, balance the demographic characteristics of the sample to match known population parameters. The weighted results used here are balanced to match parameters for sex, age, education and race/ethnicity.

SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS extension module that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure, was used to produce final weights. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis helps to ensure that the demographic characteristics of the sample approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population. The size of these weights is used to construct the measure of design effects, which indicate the extent to which the reported results are being driven by the weights applied to the data, rather than found in the data itself. Simply put, these design effects tell us how many additional respondents would have been needed to get the weighted number of respondents across weighted categories: larger design effects indicate greater levels of under-representation in the data. In this case, calculated design effects are approximately 1.3.

All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 813 residents is +/-3.5 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Including the design effects, the margin of error would be +/-4.6 percentage points, though the figure not including them is much more commonly reported.

This error calculation does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, differences in translated forms, or context effects. While such errors are known to exist, they are often unquantifiable within a particular survey, and all efforts, such as randomization and extensive pre-testing of items, have been used to minimize them.

Weighted Telephone Sample Characteristics

813 New Jersey Residents

Figures are weighted to overall voter characteristics from the 2020 US Census. Figures do not include individuals who declined to answer demographic items.

Man                                

47%                 N = 385

Woman                            

51%                 N = 414

Some Other Way          

1%                  N = 7

 

18-30                          

19%                N = 155

31-44                          

31%                 N = 250

45-64                          

31%                 N = 250

65+                              

19%                 N = 152

 

Democrat (with leaners)             

41%                 N = 334

Independent                                 

15%                 N = 123

Republican (with leaners)          

29%                 N = 235

 

White                                           

57%                N = 466

Black                                              

13%                N = 103

Hispanic/Latino/a                                     

19%                N = 158

Asian                                       

9%                  N = 69

Other/Multi-racial                                    

2%                  N = 17

 

No college degree                      

54%                N = 439

College degree or more             

45%                N = 363

 

Question Wording and Order

First off, we’d like to ask you a few questions about the government here in New Jersey.

NJ1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Phil Murphy is handling his job as governor?

1. Approve
2. Disapprove
3. Not Sure/Don’t Know [Vol]
4. Refused [Vol]

[Half of Respondents gets NJ8-10 here, half get them after NJ7]

NJ8. Recently, New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez has been indicted on corruption charges involving bribes from foreign officials to him and his wife. Menendez has said that he is innocent of the charges. Menendez is up for re-election next year. Many elected officials in New Jersey have called for him to resign, even though he has not yet been convicted of any crimes. What do you think? Should Menendez resign, or should he serve out his term?

1. Menendez should resign
2. Menendez should not resign/Should serve out his term
3. [DK/REF]

NJ9. Do you think that the politicians in New Jersey, on the whole, are…

1. Not at all corrupt
2. A little corrupt
3. Somewhat corrupt
4. Very corrupt

1. Not Sure/Don’t Know [Vol]
2. Refused [Vol]

 

NJ10. How about the politicians that represent you in state and local government? Would you say they are…

1. Not at all corrupt
2. A little corrupt
3. Somewhat corrupt
4. Very corrupt
5. Not Sure/Don’t Know [Vol]
6. Refused [Vol]

NJ2. [Half get this question here, half after NJ4a] In recent years, there has been a movement to give parents more control over what is, and is not, taught in public schools in New Jersey. How much influence do you think parents of K through 12 students should have over what’s taught in their schools?

1. Parents should be able to decide what schools teach
2. Parents should have some influence over what schools teach
3. Parents should not really influence what schools teach
4. [Not sure/Don’t Know]

NJ4. We will soon have elections for the state assembly and state Senate here in New Jersey. Most people don’t vote in these statewide elections. How likely do you think it is that you’ll vote in this election?

1. Almost certain
2. Very Likely
3. Somewhat Likely
4. Not Very Likely
5. Not at all likely
6. Already Voted
7. [DK/REF]

NJ4a. In the upcoming NJ legislative election in your district, do you think that you’ll vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate, or are you not sure? [Shuffle options]

1. Republican Candidate
2. Democratic Candidate
3. Not Sure
4. [DK/REF]

NJ5 Held for later release

NJ6. It has been suggested that the state could get more money for New Jersey transit by restoring a tax on corporations in the state and dedicating that money to New Jersey Transit. Would you support or oppose such a plan?

1. Support
2. Oppose
3. [DK/REF]

NJ7. It has also been suggested that the state could get more money for New Jersey Transit by charging a special toll to New York residents who drive into New Jersey. Would you support or oppose such a plan?

1. Support
2. Oppose
3. [DK/REF]

Further questions held for later release 

Region Classifications

Northwest: Hunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Sussex, and Warren Counties
Northeast: Bergen and Passaic Counties
Urban Core: Essex, Hudson, Mercer, Middlesex, and Union Counties
South: Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, and Salem Counties
Coast: Atlantic, Cape May, Monmouth, and Ocean Counties

Release Tables

The state could get more money for New Jersey transit by restoring a tax on corporations in the state and dedicating that money to New Jersey Transit. Would you support or oppose such a plan?
	Overall	Dem	Indp	Rep
Approve	54%	73%	52%	29%
Disapprove	29%	12%	33%	52%
[Vol] don’t Know/Not Sure/Refused	17%	15%	15%	19%

 

The state could get more money for New Jersey transit by restoring a tax on corporations in the state and dedicating that money to New Jersey Transit. Would you support or oppose such a plan?
	Overall	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Approve	54%	47%	73%	61%	57%
Disapprove	29%	35%	13%	24%	23%
[Vol] don’t Know/Not Sure/Refused	17%	18%	15%	14%	20%

 

The state could get more money for New Jersey transit by restoring a tax on corporations in the state and dedicating that money to New Jersey Transit. Would you support or oppose such a plan?
	Northwest	Northeast	Urban Core	South	Coast
Approve	52%	54%	57%	51%	50%
Disapprove	33%	28%	24%	32%	35%
[Vol] don’t Know/Not Sure/Refused	15%	18%	19%	17%	16%

 

The state could get more money for New Jersey Transit by charging a special toll to New York residents who drive into New Jersey. Would you support or oppose such a plan?
	Overall	Dem	Indp	Rep
Approve	43%	45%	49%	37%
Disapprove	45%	41%	40%	55%
[Vol] don’t Know/Not Sure/Refused	12%	14%	11%	8%

 

The state could get more money for New Jersey Transit by charging a special toll to New York residents who drive into New Jersey. Would you support or oppose such a plan?
	Overall	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Approve	43%	39%	53%	44%	46%
Disapprove	45%	51%	33%	41%	38%
[Vol] don’t Know/Not Sure/Refused	12%	9%	14%	14%	17%

 

The state could get more money for New Jersey Transit by charging a special toll to New York residents who drive into New Jersey. Would you support or oppose such a plan?
	Northwest	Northeast	Urban Core	South	Coast
Approve	41%	44%	48%	35%	37%
Disapprove	49%	49%	39%	49%	50%
[Vol] don’t Know/Not Sure/Refused	10%	7%	13%	16%	13%