FDU Poll: One in Six in New Jersey Think the Jersey Devil Might Be Real

 

 

 

One in Six in New Jersey Think the Jersey Devil Might Be Real

Paranormal beliefs like ghosts and astrology more common, but no love for the Flukeman

Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, NJ, October 27, 2023 – Hundreds of years after the first reported sightings, 16 percent of residents of New Jersey say that our very own Halloween creature, the Jersey Devil, might be real. According to the latest results from the FDU Poll, people around the state are about equally likely to say that the Pine Barrens cryptid might actually exist, and are more likely to embrace other paranormal beliefs, like ghostly hauntings.

“Almost every part of the country has its own regional monsters,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of Government and Politics at FDU, and the director of the poll. “Even in the 21^st century, beliefs in those creatures persists.”

The Pine Barrens, which cover more than a million acres of coastal New Jersey, have long been said to host the creature known as the Jersey Devil, with some accounts linking it back to the Lenape people. In the modern version of the story, the Jersey Devil dates to the 18^th Century, with a woman named Jane Leeds, living in the Pine Barrens. Leeds had twelve children, and, understandably upset at being pregnant again, cursed her 13^th child, who turned into a winged, hoofed bipedal creature and flew into the woods. It has also been linked with Daniel Leeds, the publisher of an almanac which included some occult content, and featured a creature similar to descriptions of the Jersey Devil on the cover. Purported sightings of the creature in the historical record include Joseph Bonaparte, Napoleon’s brother and once King of Spain, in 1820, and residents of Gibbstown and Greenwich Township as recently as the 1950s.

Sixteen percent of residents of New Jersey today say that the Jersey Devil is “somewhat” or “very” likely to be real, with 58 percent saying that it’s “not at all likely” to be real, and 18 percent saying that it’s “not very likely.” Younger residents are more likely than older ones to think that the Jersey Devil might be real, but New Jerseyans who actually live in and around the Pine Barrens are actually less likely to think it’s real than other residents. Only 11 percent of residents in the coastal counties think that the Jersey Devil is “somewhat” or “very” likely to be real, compared with 17 percent in the Urban Core counties, and 18 percent in the northeastern corner of the state.

“The Jersey Devil may have started off as a regional cryptid,” said Cassino. “But at this point, he’s been adopted by the state as a whole.”

While most New Jersey residents say that the Jersey Devil is not at all likely to be real, they’re not rejecting the supernatural as a whole: 44 percent say that ghosts are “somewhat” or “very” likely to be real, and 20 percent say the same about astrology. As with the Jersey Devil, younger residents of New Jersey are more likely to say that it’s “somewhat” or “very likely” true that some places are haunted: 54 percent of residents 30 and under say so, compared with just 28 percent of residents 65 and up. Women (23 percent “very likely” true) are more likely to believe in ghosts than men (11 percent “very likely” true), and people with college degrees are more skeptical than those without.

Similar patterns hold for beliefs in astrology: 29 percent of women say that it’s “somewhat” or “very” likely true that the position of the stars and planets at your birth determines your destiny, compared with just 11 percent of men. College educated residents, however, are no less likely to believe in astrology than those without a four-year degree.

“Not believing in Bigfoot or the Jersey Devil doesn’t mean giving up on all paranormal beliefs,” said Cassino. “There are lots of otherwise skeptical and scientific people who say that they’ve seen a ghost.”

Polls results like this are often criticized by those who say that respondents are just having a laugh, and trolling the interviewer, or just say that they believe in anything. To check, the survey also included a question about a paranormal creature no one really believes in: the Flukeman of Newark, a sewer dwelling abomination that appeared on an 1994 episode of the TV show “The X-Files.” Only 2 percent of residents say that he’s “very likely” to be real.

Methodology

The survey was conducted between October 6 and October 14, 2023, using a certified list of adult New Jersey residents carried out by Braun Research of Princeton, New Jersey. Lists of residents were obtained from Aristotle International of Washington, DC. Respondents were randomly chosen from the list, and contacted via either live caller telephone interviews, or text-to-web surveys sent to cellular phones, resulting in an overall sample of 813 respondents. 178 of the surveys were carried out via live caller telephone interviews on landlines, 250 on live caller interviews to cell phones, and the remainder (385) were done on a web platform via weblinks sent via SMS to cell phones. Surveys were conducted only in English.

The data were weighted to be representative of the population of adult NJ residents, as of the 2020 US Census. The weights used, like all weights, balance the demographic characteristics of the sample to match known population parameters. The weighted results used here are balanced to match parameters for sex, age, education and race/ethnicity.

SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS extension module that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure, was used to produce final weights. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis helps to ensure that the demographic characteristics of the sample approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population. The size of these weights is used to construct the measure of design effects, which indicate the extent to which the reported results are being driven by the weights applied to the data, rather than found in the data itself. Simply put, these design effects tell us how many additional respondents would have been needed to get the weighted number of respondents across weighted categories: larger design effects indicate greater levels of under-representation in the data. In this case, calculated design effects are approximately 1.3.

All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 813 residents is +/-3.5 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Including the design effects, the margin of error would be +/-4.6 percentage points, though the figure not including them is much more commonly reported.

This error calculation does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, differences in translated forms, or context effects. While such errors are known to exist, they are often unquantifiable within a particular survey, and all efforts, such as randomization and extensive pre-testing of items, have been used to minimize them.

Weighted Telephone Sample Characteristics

813 New Jersey Residents

Figures are weighted to overall voter characteristics from the 2020 US Census. Figures do not include individuals who declined to answer demographic items.

Man                                

47%                 N = 385

Woman                            

51%                 N = 414

Some Other Way          

1%                  N = 7

 

18-30                          

19%                N = 155

31-44                          

31%                 N = 250

45-64                          

31%                 N = 250

65+                              

19%                 N = 152

 

Democrat (with leaners)             

41%                 N = 334

Independent                                 

15%                 N = 123

Republican (with leaners)          

29%                 N = 235

 

White                                           

57%                N = 466

Black                                              

13%                N = 103

Hispanic/Latino/a                                     

19%                N = 158

Asian                                       

9%                  N = 69

Other/Multi-racial                                    

2%                  N = 17

 

No college degree                      

54%                N = 439

College degree or more             

45%                N = 363

Question Wording and Order

First off, we’d like to ask you a few questions about the government here in New Jersey.

NJ1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Phil Murphy is handling his job as governor?

1. Approve
2. Disapprove
3. Not Sure/Don’t Know [Vol]
4. Refused [Vol]

[Half of Respondents gets NJ8-10 here, half get them after NJ7]

NJ8. Recently, New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez has been indicted on corruption charges involving bribes from foreign officials to him and his wife. Menendez has said that he is innocent of the charges. Menendez is up for re-election next year. Many elected officials in New Jersey have called for him to resign, even though he has not yet been convicted of any crimes. What do you think? Should Menendez resign, or should he serve out his term?

1. Menendez should resign
2. Menendez should not resign/Should serve out his term
3. [DK/REF]

NJ9. Do you think that the politicians in New Jersey, on the whole, are…

1. Not at all corrupt
2. A little corrupt
3. Somewhat corrupt
4. Very corrupt

1. Not Sure/Don’t Know [Vol]
2. Refused [Vol]

 

NJ10. How about the politicians that represent you in state and local government? Would you say they are…

1. Not at all corrupt
2. A little corrupt
3. Somewhat corrupt
4. Very corrupt

1. Not Sure/Don’t Know [Vol]
2. Refused [Vol]

 

NJ2. [Half get this question here, half after NJ4a] In recent years, there has been a movement to give parents more control over what is, and is not, taught in public schools in New Jersey. How much influence do you think parents of K through 12 students should have over what’s taught in their schools?

1. Parents should be able to decide what schools teach
2. Parents should have some influence over what schools teach
3. Parents should not really influence what schools teach
4. [Not sure/Don’t Know]

NJ4. We will soon have elections for the state assembly and state Senate here in New Jersey. Most people don’t vote in these statewide elections. How likely do you think it is that you’ll vote in this election?

1. Almost certain
2. Very Likely
3. Somewhat Likely
4. Not Very Likely
5. Not at all likely
6. Already Voted
7. [DK/REF]

NJ4a. In the upcoming NJ legislative election in your district, do you think that you’ll vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate, or are you not sure? [Shuffle options]

1. Republican Candidate
2. Democratic Candidate
3. Not Sure
4. [DK/REF]

NJ5. Some states have adopted ranked choice voting systems. Under ranked choice voting, voters can vote for multiple candidates, putting them in order from their favorite down to their least favorite. [Supporters of this system say that it helps smaller parties compete and more fairly represents what voters want]. [Opponents say that it can be confusing for voters and may reduce voter turnout]. What do you think? Should New Jersey adopt ranked choice voting? [Arguments are presented in random order]

1. New Jersey should adopt ranked choice voting
2. New Jersey should not adopt ranked choice voting
3. Not Sure
4. [DK/REF]

NJ6. It has been suggested that the state could get more money for New Jersey transit by restoring a tax on corporations in the state and dedicating that money to New Jersey Transit. Would you support or oppose such a plan?

1. Support
2. Oppose
3. [DK/REF]

NJ7. It has also been suggested that the state could get more money for New Jersey Transit by charging a special toll to New York residents who drive into New Jersey. Would you support or oppose such a plan?

1. Support
2. Oppose
3. [DK/REF]

D7a. [Half of respondents get this here; half get it later in the survey] The traits that we see as being masculine or feminine are largely determined by society, and have changed dramatically over time. As a result, everyone has some combination of masculine and feminine traits, which may or may not correspond with whether they’re male or female. How do you see yourself? Would you say that you see yourself as…

1. Completely Masculine
2. Mostly Masculine
3. Slightly Masculine
4. Slightly Feminine
5. Mostly Feminine
6. Completely Feminine
7. [Dk/Ref – Vol]

In recent years, there has been an increase in the willingness of Americans to do their own research and draw their own conclusions about important topics. I’ll give you some statements that some people believe, and others don’t. For each, tell me if you think that the statement is…

[Order is randomly assigned]

1. Not At All Likely to be true
2. Not Very Likely to be true
3. Somewhat Likely to be true
4. Very Likely to be true
5. Don’t Know/Refused [Vol]

C1. Donald Trump really won the 2020 US Presidential election.

C2. A creature known as “The Jersey Devil” lives in the Pine Barrens of New Jersey

C3. The position of the stars and planets at your birth determines much of your destiny

C4. Some places are haunted by ghosts, or other spirits of the dead

C5. COVID-19 was made in a lab

C6. A humanoid creature known as the Fluke Man lives in the sewers of Newark

Region Classifications

Northwest: Hunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Sussex, and Warren Counties
Northeast: Bergen and Passaic Counties
Urban Core: Essex, Hudson, Mercer, Middlesex, and Union Counties
South: Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, and Salem Counties
Coast: Atlantic, Cape May, Monmouth, and Ocean Counties

Release Tables

The Jersey Devil
	Overall	18-30	31 to 44	45 to 64	65+
Not at All Likely to be True	58%	43%	55%	62%	68%
Not Very Likely to Be True	18%	26%	14%	18%	17%
Somewhat Likely to Be True	10%	14%	8%	9%	8%
Very Likely to be True	6%	8%	9%	5%	3%
[Vol] don’t Know/Refused	8%	9%	13%	6%	4%

 

The Jersey Devil
	Northwest	Northeast	Urban Core	South	Coast
Not at All Likely to be True	62%	55%	55%	61%	60%
Not Very Likely to Be True	17%	17%	19%	18%	19%
Somewhat Likely to Be True	11%	7%	12%	7%	7%
Very Likely to be True	6%	11%	5%	8%	4%
[Vol] don’t Know/Refused	5%	11%	9%	6%	8%

 

Astrology (the position of the stars and planets at your birth determines your destiny)
	Overall	No BA	BA+	Men	Women
Not at All Likely to be True	50%	45%	56%	60%	41%
Not Very Likely to Be True	21%	22%	20%	21%	21%
Somewhat Likely to Be True	15%	16%	15%	8%	23%
Very Likely to be True	5%	5%	4%	3%	6%
[Vol] don’t Know/Refused	9%	11%	6%	9%	9%

 

Some Places are Haunted by Ghosts
	Overall	18-30	31 to 44	45 to 64	65+
Not at All Likely to be True	32%	24%	26%	31%	51%
Not Very Likely to Be True	16%	13%	16%	17%	17%
Somewhat Likely to Be True	27%	30%	26%	30%	21%
Very Likely to be True	17%	24%	24%	12%	7%
[Vol] don’t Know/Refused	8%	9%	7%	10%	5%

 

Some Places are Haunted by Ghosts
	Overall	No BA	BA+	Men	Women
Not at All Likely to be True	32%	29%	36%	40%	25%
Not Very Likely to Be True	16%	15%	18%	16%	16%
Somewhat Likely to Be True	27%	28%	26%	26%	27%
Very Likely to be True	17%	20%	13%	11%	23%
[Vol] don’t Know/Refused	8%	8%	8%	6%	9%

 

Some Places are Haunted by Ghosts
	Overall	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Not at All Likely to be True	32%	38%	33%	16%	22%
Not Very Likely to Be True	16%	19%	10%	14%	14%
Somewhat Likely to Be True	27%	26%	24%	35%	29%
Very Likely to be True	17%	12%	25%	20%	23%
[Vol] don’t Know/Refused	8%	5%	8%	14%	13%

 

The Fluke Man of the Newark Sewers
	Overall	18-30	31 to 44	45 to 64	65+
Not at All Likely to be True	69%	54%	69%	73%	76%
Not Very Likely to Be True	13%	19%	11%	12%	13%
Somewhat Likely to Be True	3%	6%	3%	3%	2%
Very Likely to be True	2%	3%	2%	4%	1%
[Vol] don’t Know/Refused	13%	18%	15%	9%	9%

 

The Fluke Man of the Newark Sewers
	Overall	No BA	BA+	Men	Women
Not at All Likely to be True	69%	62%	76%	74%	65%
Not Very Likely to Be True	13%	15%	11%	14%	13%
Somewhat Likely to Be True	3%	4%	2%	3%	4%
Very Likely to be True	2%	3%	2%	2%	3%
[Vol] don’t Know/Refused	13%	15%	10%	8%	16%

 

Media Contact:              

Dan Cassino 

Executive Director, FDU Poll    

973.896.7072/ dcassino@fdu.edu