FDU Poll: New Jersey Split on Modifying Bag Ban

For Immediate Release

Contact:                           

Dan Cassino 

Executive Director, FDU Poll    

973.896.7072/ dcassino@fdu.edu

New Jersey Split on Modifying Bag Ban

Plurality support keep ban as it is; most Republicans want it overturned

Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, NJ, February 15, 2023 – As Trenton considers proposals to modify the state’s ban on disposable bags at grocery stores, residents are deeply divided, with 40 percent saying that the ban should be kept as is, and smaller numbers calling for it to be modified, or overturned entirely. According to the latest results from the FDU Poll, partisanship dominates how people feel about the issue, with Democrats wanting to keep the ban as is, and most Republicans wanting to see it overturned.

“When the ban passed last year, it was contentious, but politicians figured that people would get used to it,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of Government and Politics at FDU, and the director of the poll. “Nine months later, people are still arguing about it.”

The ban on large grocery stores dispensing single-use shopping bags went into effect last May and is considered one of the strictest rules of its type in the country. Supporters point to millions of single-use plastic bags that have not been distributed by stores in the months since the ban was passed. Opponents argue that revisions to the law are needed to allow for paper bags, which can be recycled, or to do something about the reusable bags piling up in the houses of residents who get groceries delivered. A bill to modify the law was introduced late last year, but was pulled in order to give more time to see if the issues would sort themselves out.

Overall, 40 percent of residents support keeping the ban as is, while 33 percent support overturning the law completely. A quarter (26 percent) say that they support modifying the ban. Democrats are the most likely to support keeping the law as is: 50 percent prefer that option, with 29 percent supporting modifying the law, and 20 percent saying it should be overturned. Conversely, a majority of Republicans (55 percent) in the state say that the bag ban should be overturned, with smaller numbers saying it should be kept as is or modified. These splits are about the same among all age groups, and between men and women.

“This is almost a perfect symbolic issue for partisans in New Jersey,” said Cassino. “Democrats can feel like they’re doing something for the environment; Republicans can feel like they’re suffering under governmental over-reach. Whether they like the ban or not, everyone is getting something they want out of it.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted between February 1 and February 6, 2023, using a certified list of adult New Jersey residents carried out by Braun Research of Princeton, New Jersey. Respondents were randomly chosen from the list, and contacted via either live caller telephone interviews, or text-to-web surveys sent to cellular phones, resulting in an overall sample of 808 respondents. 235 of the surveys were carried out via live caller telephone interviews on landlines, and the remainder (573) were done on a web platform via weblinks sent via SMS to cell phones, or via live caller cell phone interviews. Surveys were conducted only in English.

The data were weighted to be representative of the population of adult NJ residents, as of the 2020 US Census. The weights used, like all weights, balance the demographic characteristics of the sample to match known population parameters. The weighted results used here are balanced to match parameters for sex, age, education and race/ethnicity.

SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS extension module that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure, was used to produce final weights. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis helps to ensure that the demographic characteristics of the sample approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population. The size of these weights is used to construct the measure of design effects, which indicate the extent to which the reported results are being driven by the weights applied to the data, rather than found in the data itself. Simply put, these design effects tell us how many additional respondents would have been needed to get the weighted number of respondents across weighted categories: larger design effects indicate greater levels of under-representation in the data. In this case, calculated design effects are approximately 1.3.

All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 808 residents is +/-3.5 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Including the design effects, the margin of error would be +/-4.6 percentage points, though the figure not including them is much more commonly reported.

This error calculation does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, differences in translated forms, or context effects. While such errors are known to exist, they are often unquantifiable within a particular survey, and all efforts, such as randomization and extensive pre-testing of items, have been used to minimize them.

Weighted Telephone Sample Characteristics

808 New Jersey Residents

Figures are weighted to overall voter characteristics from the 2020 US Census. Respondents who refused to answer a demographic item are not included.

Man                                 47%                 N = 381

Woman                             51%                 N = 412

Some Other Way           2%                  N = 15

18-30                           17%                N = 136

31-44                           29%                 N = 232

45-64                           33%                 N = 264

65+                               21%                 N = 168

Democrat (with leaners)              50%                 N = 357

Independent                                  15%                 N = 110

Republican (with leaners)           35%                 N = 246

White                                            55%                N = 443

Black                                               11%                N = 92

Hispanic/Latino/a                                      18%                N = 145

Asian                                        9%                  N = 69

Other/Multi-racial                                     2%                  N = 15

No college degree                       55%                N = 447

College degree or more              45%                N = 350

Question Wording and Order

NJ1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Phil Murphy is handling his job as governor?

1. Approve
2. Disapprove
3. Not Sure/Don’t Know [Vol]
4. Refused [Vol]

NJ2. I’m going to describe some bills that might be considered by the state legislature this year. For each, tell me whether you would support that bill, oppose that bill, or if you don’t know.

1. Currently, high schools in New Jersey start as early as 7:30 in the morning. One bill would require that high schools at 8:30 or later. Students would stay later to get the same amount of class time.
2. Support bill
3. Oppose bill
4. Not sure
5. Don’t Know [vol]
6. Refused [vol]

[NJ2B-NJ6 Held for future release]

I’m going to read you the names of some people who might run for Governor of New Jersey in the next election. Some are already well known, and some aren’t. For each, tell me if you’ve heard of them, and, if you have, whether you have a positive or negative view of them.

[Respondents are randomly assigned to get the candidates in order A or B]

Order A:

1. Newark Mayor Democrat Ras Baraka
2. Republican State Senator Holly Schepisi
3. Former Republican Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli
4. Jersey City Mayor Democrat Steven Fulop
5. [Democratic/Republican] [Mayor/Assemblywoman] Paula Hawkins*
6. [Democratic/Republican] [Mayor/Assemblyman] Vance Kassebaum*
7. Current first lady Democrat Tammy Murphy
8. Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill
9. Republican Talk Show Host Bill Spadea
10. Republican State Senator Mike Testa
11. Lieutenant Governor Democrat Sheila Oliver
12. Former Democratic Senate President Stephen Sweeney

Order B:

1. Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill
2. Republican State Senator Holly Schepisi
3. Current first lady Democrat Tammy Murphy
4. [Democratic/Republican] [Mayor/Assemblywoman] Paula Hawkins*
5. Lieutenant Governor Democrat Sheila Oliver
6. Newark Mayor Democrat Ras Baraka
7. Former Republican Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli
8. Jersey City Mayor Democrat Steven Fulop
9. [Democratic/Republican] [Mayor/Assemblyman] Vance Kassebaum*
10. Republican Talk Show Host Bill Spadea
11. Republican State Senator Mike Testa
12. Former Democratic Senate President Stephen Sweeney

[Hawkins and Kassebaum are made up names, used as baselines. They are randomly assigned across Dem/Rep and Mayor/Assembly Member]

For each:

C1. Have you heard of [insert name here]?

1. Yes
2. No
3. Refused [vol]

C2. [If C1 is “yes”] Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them, or do you not know enough about them to have an opinion?

1. Favorable
2. Unfavorable
3. Don’t know enough to have an opinion
4. Refused [vol]

NJ2. I’m going to describe some bills that might be considered by the state legislature this year. For each, tell me whether you would support that bill, oppose that bill, or if you don’t know.

1. Currently, high schools in New Jersey start as early as 7:30 in the morning. One bill would require that high schools at 8:30 or later. Students would stay later to get the same amount of class time.
2. [Held for future release]

[For each]

6. Support bill
7. Oppose bill
8. Not sure
9. Don’t Know [vol]
10. Refused [vol]

NJ4. [Half of respondents get this here, half get it before NJ3] When you go to a restaurant, do you prefer it if you can bring your own bottle, or if the restaurant serves its own alcohol?

1. Prefer BYOB
2. Prefer restaurant to serve alcohol
3. No Preference/ Don’t Know [Vol]
4. Refused [Vol]

NJ3. Governor Murphy has proposed increasing the number of liquor licenses for restaurants in New Jersey. [This would make it easier for restaurants to serve alcohol, and encourage more chain restaurants to open]. But [this could hurt some restaurants that bought licenses for tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars.] [Rotate order of pros/cons] What do you think? Should the state expand the number of liquor licenses, or not?

1. State should expand the number of licenses
2. State should not expand the number of licenses
3. Don’t know [Vol]
4. Refused [Vol]

NJ4. [Half of respondents get this here, half get it before NJ3] When you go to a restaurant, do you prefer it if you can bring your own bottle, or if the restaurant serves its own alcohol?

1. Prefer BYOB
2. Prefer restaurant to serve alcohol
3. No Preference/ Don’t Know [Vol]
4. Refused [Vol]

[NJ5 Reserved for future release]

NJ6. There have been several proposals to modify the state’s ban on single use bags at grocery stores. What do you think? Should keep the bag ban as is, modify the ban on disposable bags, or overturn the law completely?

1. Keep ban as is
2. Modify ban
3. Overturn law
4. Don’t Know [vol]
5. Refused [vol]

Release Tables