FDU Poll: Italian Americans Still Politically Distinct in NJ

 

 

 

Italian Americans Still Politically Distinct in NJ

Italian men, but not women, more Republican, pro-Trump

Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, NJ, May 24, 2023 – Seventeen percent of New Jersey residents claim Italian ancestry, but in an era where immigrants from around the world are making the state more diverse, are Italian Americans still a distinct group? According to the latest results from the FDU Poll, Italian Americans, and especially Italian American men, remain different politically from other whites in the state, and are much more likely to be Republicans and support former President Trump.

“Today, Italians have been fully assimilated into American society,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of Government and Politics at FDU, and the director of the poll. “But at least in New Jersey, they continue to be a distinct voting bloc.”

The biggest driver of political views in the U.S. is partisanship: whether someone considers themselves to be a Republican, a Democrat or something else. In New Jersey overall, 44 percent of residents say that they’re Democrats (or independents who “lean” towards the Democratic Party), and 34 percent say that they’re Republicans or Republican leaners. Italian Americans aren’t significantly different from other whites in the state on this measure: they’re 36 percent Democratic and 43 percent Republican, while other whites come in at 40 percent Democratic and 42 percent Republican. While there is a gap, it isn’t statistically significant.

But Italian American men are more Republican than other white men in the state. Fully 57 percent of Italian American men in the state say that they’re Republicans, compared to 45 percent of other white men. There is no significant difference between the partisanship of Italian American women and other white women in the state.

“The fact that we see a gap among Italian American men, but not women, tells us that this isn’t about socioeconomics, education or other differences,” said Cassino. “This is about how Italian American men are being socialized, and how that shapes their politics.”

In addition to being more Republican, Italian American men are disproportionately supportive of former President Trump. As with partisanship, Italian Americans overall in New Jersey are not significantly more likely to say that they voted for Trump in the 2020 Presidential election than other whites in the state. Forty-two percent say that they supported Trump, no different than the 42 percent of non-Italian American whites, but much more than the 19 percent of non-white residents who say they supported Trump. However, when the data is broken down by sex, differences become clear. While Italian American women are no more or less likely to say that they supported Trump than other white women in the state, Italian American men are more likely to say that they supported Trump (59 percent) than other white men (45 percent).

“We could argue about why Trump seems to do such a good job of appealing to Italian American men,” said Cassino. “But whether the appeal is about blue-collar jobs, or masculinity, or just a matter of style, it’s working.”

It might be tempting to attribute these political differences to religious views, but Italian Americans in the state do not report going to church more than other residents, nor do they hold significantly different views of abortion rights. Twenty-eight percent of Italian Americans in the state say that they go to church every week, or more often than that; the figure among other whites in the state is 23 percent. Thirty-nine percent of Italian Americans say that they “seldom” or “never” go to church, compared with 46 percent of other whites. Just four percent of Italian Americans say that abortion should always be illegal, no different than the 4 percent of other white residents who say so.

Despite the lack of a difference in religious views, some of the gaps between Italian Americans and other groups could be driven by other demographics. Italian Americans in the state are less likely to say that they graduated from college with a four-year degree (34 percent) than other white residents (46 percent). While Italian Americans in the state aren’t significantly older than other white residents (10 percent of Italian adults in the state are 30 or under, compared with 14 percent of other whites), they are older, on average, than non-white residents.

“Italians, like other groups of whites in New Jersey, are shrinking as a share of the population,” said Cassino. “Between aging and moving, in twenty years, there are going to be a lot fewer Italians in the state.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted between April 28 and May 6, 2023, using a certified list of adult New Jersey residents carried out by Braun Research of Princeton, New Jersey. Lists of residents were obtained from Aristotle International of Washington, DC. Respondents were randomly chosen from the list and contacted via either live-caller telephone interviews or text-to-web surveys sent to cellular phones, resulting in an overall sample of 817 respondents. 239 of the surveys were carried out via live-caller telephone interviews on landlines, and the remainder (578) were done on a web platform via web links sent via SMS to cell phones, or via live-caller cell phone interviews. Surveys were conducted only in English.

The data were weighted to be representative of the population of adult NJ residents, as of the 2020 US Census. The weights used, like all weights, balance the demographic characteristics of the sample to match known population parameters. The weighted results used here are balanced to match parameters for sex, age, education and race/ethnicity.

SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS extension module that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure, was used to produce final weights. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis helps to ensure that the demographic characteristics of the sample approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population. The size of these weights is used to construct the measure of design effects, which indicate the extent to which the reported results are being driven by the weights applied to the data, rather than found in the data itself. Simply put, these design effects tell us how many additional respondents would have been needed to get the weighted number of respondents across weighted categories: larger design effects indicate greater levels of under-representation in the data. In this case, calculated design effects are approximately 1.4.

All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 817 residents is +/-3.5 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Including the design effects, the margin of error would be +/-4.7 percentage points, though the figure not including them is much more commonly reported.

This error calculation does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, differences in translated forms, or context effects. While such errors are known to exist, they are often unquantifiable within a particular survey, and all efforts, such as randomization and extensive pre-testing of items, have been used to minimize them.

Weighted Telephone Sample Characteristics

817 New Jersey Residents

Figures are weighted to overall voter characteristics from the 2020 US Census. Figures do not include individuals who declined to answer demographic items.

 

Man                                

49%                 N = 399

Woman                             

50%                 N = 402

Some Other Way          

1%                  N = 9

 

18-30                          

19%                N = 158

31-44                          

30%                 N = 249

45-64                          

32%                 N = 252

65+                              

19%                 N = 150

 

Democrat (with leaners)             

44%                 N = 295

Independent                                 

22%                 N = 147

Republican (with leaners)          

34%                 N = 230

 

White                                           

55%                N = 449

Black                                              

13%                N = 104

Hispanic/Latino/a                                     

21%                N = 170

Asian                                       

8%                  N = 61

Other/Multi-racial                                    

2%                  N = 15

 

No college degree                      

60%                N = 483

College degree or more             

40%                N = 321

Question Wording and Order

First off, we’d like to ask you a few questions about the government here in New Jersey.

NJ1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Phil Murphy is handling his job as governor?

  1. Approve
  2. Disapprove
  3. Not Sure/Don’t Know [Vol]
  4. Refused [Vol]

[Respondents are randomly assigned to get NJ2A or NJ2B]

NJ2A. In recent months, dead whales and dolphins have washed up on New Jersey beaches. No one is sure why. The deaths have led some people to argue that New Jersey should stop development of off-shore wind farms until we know what’s happening. What do you think? Should we stop the development of off-shore wind farms, or not?

  1. Should stop the development of off-shore wind farms
  2. Development of off-shore wind farms should continue
  3. Not Sure/Don’t Know [Vol]
  4. Refused [Vol]

NJ2B. The development of off-shore wind farms off the Jersey Shore has long been controversial. For various reasons, some people want to stop building the wind farms, other people think that they should go forward. What do you think? Should we stop the development of off-shore wind farms, or not?

  1. Should stop the development of off-shore wind farms
  2. Development of off-shore wind farms should continue
  3. Not Sure/Don’t Know [Vol]
  4. Refused [Vol]

[Respondents are randomly assigned to get NJ3A or NJ3B]

NJ3A. Currently, students in New Jersey public schools are required to learn about climate change. Some people say that this is an important topic in science and society that children should learn about; others say that learning about climate change might be too upsetting for them. What do you think? Should children be required to learn about climate change in school?

  1. Yes, should be required
  2. No, should not be required
  3. Not Sure/Don’t Know [Vol]
  4. Refused [Vol]

NJ3B Currently, students in New Jersey public schools are required to learn about climate change. For various reasons, some people think climate change should not be part of the curriculum. What do you think? Should children be required to learn about climate change in school?

  1. Yes, should be required
  2. No, should not be required
  3. Not Sure/Don’t Know [Vol]
  4. Refused [Vol]

NJ4. Do you think that the politicians in New Jersey, on the whole, are…

  1. Not at all corrupt
  2. A little corrupt
  3. Somewhat corrupt
  4. Very corrupt
  5. Not Sure/Don’t Know [Vol]
  6. Refused [Vol]

NJ5. How about the politicians that represent you in state and local government? Would you say they are…

  1. Not at all corrupt
  2. A little corrupt
  3. Somewhat corrupt
  4. Very corrupt
  5. Not Sure/Don’t Know [Vol]
  6. Refused [Vol]

D1. In politics today, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or something else? 

  1. Democrat                   
  2. Republican 
  3. Independent  [ASK D1A]                                                                                
  4. Something Else/Other                                   
  5. DK/Ref

D1A. [Ask only if D1 is 3] Which way do you lean?

  1. Democrat 
  2. Republican
  3. Independent                                                              
  4. Something Else/Other                                   
  5. DK/Ref

NJ6. [Half get this question before NJ7, half get it after NJ7] Former President Trump is under investigation over several matters and has been indicted for alleged crimes in New York. Do you believe that these investigations are legitimate, or not?

  1. Believe that they’re legitimate
  2. Do not believe that they’re legitimate
  3. Don’t Know [Vol]
  4. Refused [Vol]

[Randomly shuffle order of NJ7A, NJ7B; both only for Republicans and leaners]

NJ7A. [Ask only Republicans/lean Republicans] Regardless of who else is running for the Republican nomination, how likely are you to support former President Trump in the Republican Presidential Primary next year?

  1. Will definitely support Trump
  2. Likely to support Trump
  3. Unlikely to support Trump
  4. Will definitely not support Trump
  5. Not Sure/Don’t Know [Vol]
  6. Refused [Vol]

NJ7B. [Ask only Republicans/lean Republicans] Former Governor Christie has been exploring a run for President next year. Regardless of who else is running for the Republican nomination, would you consider voting for Christie in the Republican Presidential primary?

  1. Would consider voting for Christie
  2. Would not consider voting for Christie
  3. Not Sure/Don’t Know [Vol]
  4. Refused [Vol]

NJ6. [Half get this question before NJ7, half get it after NJ7] Former President Trump is under investigation over several matters and has been indicted for alleged crimes in New York. Do you believe that these investigations are legitimate, or not?

  1. Believe that they’re legitimate
  2. Do not believe that they’re legitimate
  3. Don’t Know [Vol]
  4. Refused [Vol]

There has been a push in New Jersey to help adults get college degrees. We’d like to ask a few questions about those programs.

D4. What was the last grade in school you completed? [CODE TO LIST]

  1. Did not complete High School
  2. High School Diploma or equivalent
  3. Vocational or Trade School
  4. Some college, but no degree
  5. Associates, or other 2 year degree
  6. Bachelor’s Degree
  7. Graduate work, such as Law, MBA, Medical School, or similar
  8. Refused (VOL)

NJ8A. [Ask only if “Some college, but no degree”: about 15% of sample] Have you ever considered going back to college to finish your degree?

  1. Yes
  2. No
  3. Don’t Know [Vol]
  4. Refused [Vol]

NJ8B. [Ask only if “Some college, but no degree”] If you had to pick one, what has been the biggest reason that you haven’t gone back to college?

  1. Don’t have time
  2. It’s too expensive
  3. Don’t need a degree
  4. Don’t want to have to do school again
  5. Don’t Know [Vol]
  6. Refused [Vol]

NJ9. Currently, residents of New Jersey who earn less than one hundred thousand dollars per year are eligible to attend community colleges for free. Before I mentioned it, had you ever heard of this program?

  1. Yes
  2. No
  3. Not Sure/Don’t Know [Vol]
  4. Refused [Vol]

Demos

Just a few more questions, for statistical purposes

D2A. To ensure we are reaching people of all ages, would you please tell me your age?

            ____    (ENTER AGE: 98=98+, 99 = REFUSED)

            [IF Don’t Know/REFUSED IN QD1, ASK:] 

D2B.  Would you be willing to tell us whether it’s between…?

  1. Under 30
  2. 31 to 44
  3. 45 to 64
  4. 65 or over
  5. [Refused]

D5. In the 2020 Presidential election, did you vote for Joe Biden, Donald Trump, someone else, or did you not vote?

  1. Biden
  2. Trump
  3. Someone Else

D10. Aside from weddings and funerals how often do you attend religious services… more than once a week, once a week, once or twice a month, a few times a year, seldom, or never?

  1. More than once a week
  2. Once a week
  3. One or twice a month
  4. A few times a year
  5. Seldom
  6. Never
  7. Don’t Know [Vol]
  1. Refused [Vol]

D6. How would you describe your sex? Do you describe yourself as …

  1. A Man
  2. A Woman
  3. Some other way
  4. [DK/REF]

D7. How would you describe your racial and ethnic background? You can pick as many as you’d like.

  1. White
  2. Black
  3. Asian 
  4. Hispanic/Latino/a/Spanish
  5. Other or Multi-Racial
  6. [Dk/Ref]

D7A. And do you consider yourself to be Italian-American, Irish-American, German-American, or part of some other ancestry-based group?

  1. Yes, Italian-American
  2. Yes, Irish-American
  3. Yes, German-American
  4. Yes, some other group: [And what would that be? Record answer]
  5. No

NJ10A. [Half of Respondents get this question here; half get it after D8] Do you think abortion should be legal under any circumstances, legal only under certain circumstances, or illegal in all circumstances?

  1. Legal under any circumstances
  2. Legal only under certain circumstances
  3. Illegal in all circumstances
  4. [Don’t Know/Refused]

D8. The traits that we see as being masculine or feminine are largely determined by society, and have changed dramatically over time. As a result, everyone has some combination of masculine and feminine traits, which may or may not correspond with whether they’re male or female. How do you see yourself? Would you say that you see yourself as…

  1. Completely Masculine
  2. Mostly Masculine
  3. Slightly Masculine
  4. Slightly Feminine
  5. Mostly Feminine
  6. Completely Feminine
  7. [Dk/Ref – Vol]

NJ10A. [Half of Respondents get this question here; half get it before D8] Do you think abortion should be legal under any circumstances, legal only under certain circumstances, or illegal in all circumstances?

  1. Legal under any circumstances
  2. Legal only under certain circumstances
  3. Illegal in all circumstances
  4. [Don’t Know/Refused]

D9. Before I called you for this survey, had you ever heard of Fairleigh Dickinson University?

  1. Yes
  2. No
  3. Don’t Know
  4. Vol: Refused

D9A [Only those who said “Yes” to D9] And do you have a positive view of Fairleigh Dickinson University, a negative view, or don’t you know enough about it to have an opinion?

  1. Positive
  2. Negative
  3. Don’t Know
  4. Vol: Refused

 

Release Tables

How often do you attend religious services?

 

Overall

Italian

White, Non-Italian

Other

Weekly or More

26%

28%

23%

29%

1-2x a month/few times a year

29%

30%

29%

29%

Seldom/Never

41%

39%

46%

36%

Don’t Know/Refused [Vol]

4%

3%

2%

6%

 

How often do you attend religious services?

 

Italian Men

White, Non-Italian Men

Italian Women

White, Non-Italian Women

Weekly or More

18%

22%

34%

24%

1-2x a month/few times a year

37%

26%

25%

32%

Seldom/Never

43%

50%

37%

42%

Don’t Know/Refused [Vol]

2%

2%

4%

2%

 

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or something else?

 

Overall

Italian

White, Non-Italian

Other

Democrat

44%

36%

40%

54%

Independent

22%

21%

18%

25%

Republican

34%

43%

42%

21%

 

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or something else?

 

Italian Men

White, Non-Italian Men

Italian Women

White, Non-Italian Women

Democrat

28%

31%

42%

50%

Independent

15%

23%

25%

12%

Republican

57%

45%

33%

38%

 

Do you think abortion should be legal under any circumstances, legal only under certain circumstances, or illegal in all circumstances?

 

Overall

Italian

White, Non-Italian

Other

Always Legal

45%

40%

45%

48%

Legal Under Certain Circumstances

41%

51%

45%

34%

Illegal in all Circumstances

8%

6%

6%

11%

Don’t Know/Refused [Vol]

6%

4%

4%

6%

 

Do you think abortion should be legal under any circumstances, legal only under certain circumstances, or illegal in all circumstances?

 

Italian Men

White, Non-Italian Men

Italian Women

White, Non-Italian Women

Always Legal

31%

39%

46%

50%

Legal Under Certain Circumstances

59%

49%

45%

41%

Illegal in all Circumstances

8%

7%

4%

6%

Don’t Know/Refused [Vol]

2%

5%

5%

3%

 

 

In the 2020 Presidential election, did you vote for Joe Biden, Donald Trump, someone else, or did you not vote?

 

Overall

Italian

White, Non-Italian

Other

Biden

44%

39%

41%

48%

Trump

32%

42%

42%

19%

Someone Else

6%

5%

5%

6%

Didn’t Vote

11%

5%

7%

16%

Refused

8%

9%

5%

11%

 

In the 2020 Presidential election, did you vote for Joe Biden, Donald Trump, someone else, or did you not vote?

 

Italian Men

White, Non-Italian Men

Italian Women

White, Non-Italian Women

Biden

28%

37%

47%

46%

Trump

59%

45%

30%

40%

Someone Else

4%

7%

7%

3%

Didn’t Vote

4%

8%

6%

6%

Refused

6%

3%

10%

5%

 

Age

 

Overall

Italian

White, Non-Italian

Other

30 or Under

19%

10%

14%

29%

31 to 44

31%

31%

24%

39%

45 to 64

31%

41%

36%

26%

65+

18%

18%

25%

6%

Refused

1%

0%

1%

0%

 

Four-Year College Degree

 

Overall

Italian

White, Non-Italian

Other

No Four Year Degree

59%

64%

53%

63%

Four Year College Degree

39%

34%

46%

35%

Refused

2%

2%

1%

2%

 

Media Contact:                           

Dan Cassino 

Executive Director, FDU Poll    

973.896.7072/ dcassino@fdu.edu

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