FDU Poll finds Trump’s Embrace of Crypto Pays Off
Trump’s Embrace of Crypto Pays Off
About 1 in 7 voters own cryptocurrency and are disproportionately likely to support Trump
Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, NJ, August 30, 2024 – Voters who say that they own cryptocurrency or related assets favor former President Donald Trump over Vice-President Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential election by 12 points, a degree not explained by other factors. According to the latest results from the FDU Poll’s national survey of voters in the US, Trump leads by 12 points among likely voters who own crypto (50 to 38), while Harris leads by 12 among those who say that they don’t own crypto (53 to 41).
“Trump has been reaching out to the crypto community, and it seems to have paid off,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of Government and Politics at Fairleigh Dickinson, and the Executive Director of the poll. “It might be easy to dismiss them as insignificant, but I don’t think people realize exactly how widespread crypto ownership is.”
Trump gave a keynote address at a cryptocurrency conference in Nashville in July, where he promised support for the Bitcoin mining industry, which has been criticized for heavy use of electricity. Official figures say that between 0.6 and 2.3 percent of all electricity in the US is used for cryptocurrency mining, complicating efforts to transition the US away from electricity generated by fossil fuels.
Just last week, Trump released a new set of NFTs – essentially digital trading cards – which carry captions like “crypto president.” Previous sales of similar cards have brought in millions of dollars, though it is unclear how much Trump personally received from them. Trump’s support of crypto contrasts with some previous statements; in 2021, he denounced cryptocurrency as a “scam” in an interview on Fox Business.
In the poll of registered voters, 15 percent said that they owned, or had previously owned, cryptocurrencies, NFTs, or similar digital products. Eighty percent of voters say that they have not owned any such assets, and 4 percent say that they don’t know what any of those things are. Crypto owners are disproportionately men (22 percent, versus 9 percent of women), young, and members of racial minority groups. Thirteen percent of white voters say that they’ve owned crypto, compared to 17 percent of Black voters and 22 percent of Hispanics.
“Historically, Republicans have had a hard time reaching young people and people of color,” said Cassino. “Support for cryptocurrencies is very much a wedge issue that could win over voters that otherwise look more like Democrats.”
Republicans are a little more likely to say that they own crypto (18 percent) than Democrats (11 percent), but the difference is not big enough to explain the 24-point swing in Presidential support between crypto owners (Trump +12) and non-owners (Harris +12). Also, self-identified liberals, moderates, conservatives, progressives and MAGA voters are all about equally likely to say that they own cryptocurrencies.
Young men are more likely than any other group to own cryptocurrencies, but they’re not more likely than older men to support Trump: support among men for all age groups is between 48 and 55 percent. Forty-two percent of men 30 and under say that they own crypto, compared with just 26 percent of men 31 to 44, 19 percent of men 45 to 64, and just 4 percent of men 65 and over. Older voters are more likely than younger ones to support Trump and are much less likely to say that they own cryptocurrencies. So, Trump’s higher levels of support among crypto owners can’t simply be a function of greater support among age groups more likely to support Trump in the first place.
“The ideology underlying crypto is based on distrust of existing power structures, and that makes it a reasonable fit for Trump,” said Cassino. “The fact that crypto owners aren’t conservatives or liberals or MAGA voters means that they’re up for grabs, and in an election that’s expected to be close, they’re too big a group to ignore.”
The survey was conducted between August 17 and August 20, 2024, using a voter list of registered voters nationwide carried out by Braun Research of Princeton, New Jersey. Respondents were contacted via either live caller telephone interviews, or text-to-web surveys sent to cellular phones, resulting in an overall sample of 801 registered voters nationally. 520 of the surveys were carried out via live caller telephone interviews to landlines (30%) and cellphones (70%) and the remainder (281) were done on a web platform via weblinks sent via SMS to cell phones. Surveys were conducted only in English.
The data were weighted to be representative of the population of voters in the 2020 US Presidential Election, according to data from AP VoteCast. The weights used, like all weights, balance the demographic characteristics of the sample to match known population parameters. The weighted results used here are balanced to match parameters for sex, age, education and race/ethnicity. Individuals were considered likely voters in the upcoming Presidential Election if they (a) were registered voters, who (b) said that they planned to vote in the upcoming election, and (c) had a candidate preference in that election.
SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS extension module that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure, was used to produce final weights. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis helps to ensure that the demographic characteristics of the sample approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population. The size of these weights is used to construct the measure of design effects, which indicate the extent to which the reported results are being driven by the weights applied to the data, rather than found in the data itself. Simply put, these design effects tell us how many additional respondents would have been needed to get the weighted number of respondents across weighted categories: larger design effects indicate greater levels of under-representation in the data. In this case, calculated design effects are approximately 1.3, largely driven by the weights used on the race/ethnicity variable.
All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 801 registered voters is +/-3.5 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Including the design effects, the margin of error would be +/-4.6 percentage points, though the figure not including them is much more commonly reported.
This error calculation does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, differences in translated forms, or context effects. While such errors are known to exist, they are often unquantifiable within a particular survey, and all efforts, such as randomization and extensive pre-testing of items, have been used to minimize them.
The FDU Poll is a member of the AAPOR Transparency Initiative and is devoted to ensuring that our results are presented in such a way that anyone can quickly and easily get all of the information that they may need to evaluate the validity of our surveys. We believe that transparency is the key to building trust in the work of high-quality public opinion research, and necessary to push our industry forward.
801 Registered Voters Nationally
Figures do not include individuals who declined to answer demographic items.
Man
48% N = 380
Woman
52% N = 412
Some Other Way
>1% N = 7
18-30
17% N = 136
31-44
23% N = 184
45-64
38% N = 304
65+
22% N = 176
White
67% N = 526
Black
13% N = 102
Hispanic/Latino/a
13% N = 102
Asian
4% N = 31
Other/Multi-racial
3% N = 24
No college degree
59% N = 468
College degree or more
41% N = 326
First off, we’d like to ask you a few questions about the upcoming Presidential Election
P1. Which of the following would you say are important to your vote in November? For each one, just say if you think it’s important or not.
[All respondents get five of these. One third of respondents get A-E, shuffled. Another third get 4 of A-E, in shuffled order, with F as the last one. The Last third get 4 of A-E, in shuffled order, with G as the last one]
- Foreign Policy
- Immigration Policy
- Abortion
- Climate Change
- Tax Policy
- [One third of respondents get this option] The Race or Ethnicity of the Candidate
- [One third of respondents get this option] Whether the Candidate is a Man or a Woman
P2. [Shuffle order of top candidates] In November’s Presidential election, do you intend to vote for Kamala [COMMA-lah] Harris, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, for someone else, or do you not plan on voting?
- Kamala [COMMA-lah] Harris, the Democrat
- Donald Trump, the Republican
- Someone else
- Not going to vote
- [Vol] Don’t know/ Refused
P3. In the US today, do you feel that you can openly express your social and political opinions, that you can express your opinions sometimes, or do you have to be careful not to express your opinions?
- I can only express my opinions
- I can only sometimes express my opinions
- I have to be careful not to express my opinions
- [Vol] Don’t Know/Refused
P4. How commonly do you see your views about social and political issues represented in the media?
- Often
- Sometimes
- Rarely
- Never
- [Vol] Don’t Know/Refused
P5. Regardless of where you get your news about politics and current events, which of these sources of information do you consider to be trustworthy?
[You can pick as many as you like]
- Local newspapers
- National Newspapers like the New York Times or Washington Post
- Local TV News
- National TV News
- CNN
- MSNBC
- Fox News
- Other Cable News Channels
- Social Media
P6. Gender roles in the US have been changing rapidly, and we’d like to hear what you think about how men should act today. For each of the following statements, tell me whether you strongly agree or disagree, agree or disagree but not strongly, or have no opinion.
- Strongly Agree
- Agree
- No opinion
- Disagree
- Strongly Disagree
- [Vol] Don’t know/ Refused
- Men should watch football games instead of soap operas
- Boys should prefer to play with trucks rather than dolls.
- A man should always be the boss
[Please pick Disagree in this row]
- I think a young man should try to be physically tough, even if he’s not big.
- Men should not be too quick to tell others that they care about them
Intervening questions held for later release
Just a few more questions, for statistical purposes
D1. In politics today, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or something else?
- Democrat
- Republican
- Independent [ASK D1A]
- Something Else/Other
- DK/Ref [vol]
D1A. [Ask only if D1 is 3] Which way do you lean?
- Democrat
- Republican
- Independent
- Something Else/Other
- DK/Ref [vol]
D1B. In addition, which of the following terms would you use to describe your political views? You can choose as many as you like. [Shuffle Order]
- Liberal
- Moderate
- Conservative
- Socialist
- Progressive
- Libertarian
- Make America Great Again or MAGA
- Nationalist
D2A. To ensure we are reaching people of all ages, would you please tell me your age?
____ (ENTER AGE: 98=98+, 99 = REFUSED)
[IF Don’t Know/REFUSED IN QD1, ASK:]
D2B. Would you be willing to tell us whether it’s between…?
- Under 30
- 31 to 44
- 45 to 64
- 65 or over
- [Refused]
D3. What was the last grade in school you completed? [CODE TO LIST]
- Did not complete High School
- High School Diploma or equivalent
- Vocational or Trade School
- Some college, but no degree
- Associates, or other 2 year degree
- Bachelor’s Degree
- Graduate work, such as Law, MBA, Medical School, or similar
- Refused (VOL)
D4. How would you describe your sex? Do you describe yourself as …
- A Man
- A Woman
- Some other way
- [DK/REF]
D5. How would you describe your racial and ethnic background? You can pick as many as you’d like.
- White
- Black
- Asian
- Hispanic/Latino/a/Spanish
- Other or Multi-Racial
- [Dk/Ref]
Have you ever used financial trading programs or apps, like RobinHood or ETrade to buy and sell stocks, options, forex or cryptocurrency on your own, without using a broker or financial advisor?
- Yes
- No
- [Vol] Don’t Know/Refused
D6. Have you ever owned any cryptocurrency, NFTs, or other similar digital products? It’s fine if you don’t know what those are.
- Yes
- No
- Don’t know what those are
- [Refused]
D7. The traits that we see as being masculine or feminine are largely determined by society, and have changed dramatically over time. As a result, everyone has some combination of masculine and feminine traits, which may or may not correspond with whether they’re male or female. How do you see yourself? Would you say that you see yourself as…
- Completely Masculine
- Mostly Masculine
- Slightly Masculine
- Slightly Feminine
- Mostly Feminine
- Completely Feminine
- [Dk/Ref]
Thanks so much for your participation – you’ll see the results in the news in the next few weeks
Note: respondents who did not have a preference or said that they would not vote in the upcoming election were not considered likely voters, and are excluded from these tables.
|
In November’s Presidential election, do you intend to vote for Kamala Harris, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, for someone else, or do you not plan on voting? |
||||
|
|
All |
Owns Cryptocurrency |
No Cryptocurrency |
Don’t Know What Those Are |
|
Kamala Harris |
50% |
38% |
53% |
43% |
|
Donald Trump |
43% |
50% |
41% |
46% |
|
Someone Else |
7% |
12% |
6% |
11% |
|
In November’s Presidential election, do you intend to vote for Kamala Harris, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, for someone else, or do you not plan on voting? |
||||
|
|
All |
Dem |
Indp |
Rep |
|
Kamala Harris |
50% |
95% |
38% |
2% |
|
Donald Trump |
43% |
3% |
33% |
95% |
|
Someone Else |
7% |
2% |
29% |
3% |
|
In November’s Presidential election, do you intend to vote for Kamala Harris, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, for someone else, or do you not plan on voting? |
||||
|
|
All |
Liberal |
Moderate |
Conservative |
|
Kamala Harris |
50% |
87% |
62% |
19% |
|
Donald Trump |
43% |
10% |
30% |
76% |
|
Someone Else |
7% |
3% |
8% |
5% |
|
In November’s Presidential election, do you intend to vote for Kamala Harris, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, for someone else, or do you not plan on voting? |
|||
|
|
All |
Progressive |
MAGA |
|
Kamala Harris |
50% |
93% |
4% |
|
Donald Trump |
43% |
5% |
95% |
|
Someone Else |
7% |
2% |
1% |
|
Have you ever owned any cryptocurrency, NFTs, or other similar digital products? |
|||||
|
|
All |
Men |
Women |
No College Degree |
4 yr Degree |
|
Yes |
15% |
22% |
9% |
16% |
14% |
|
No |
80% |
75% |
84% |
78% |
83% |
|
Don’t Know what those are |
4% |
2% |
6% |
5% |
2% |
|
Refused [Vol] |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
|
Have you ever owned any cryptocurrency, NFTs, or other similar digital products? |
||||
|
|
All |
White |
Black |
Hispanic |
|
Yes |
15% |
13% |
17% |
22% |
|
No |
80% |
83% |
76% |
73% |
|
Don’t Know what those are |
4% |
3% |
8% |
3% |
|
Refused [Vol] |
1% |
1% |
– |
2% |
|
Have you ever owned any cryptocurrency, NFTs, or other similar digital products? |
||||
|
|
All |
Dem |
Indp |
Rep |
|
Yes |
15% |
11% |
14% |
18% |
|
No |
80% |
84% |
79% |
77% |
|
Don’t Know what those are |
4% |
4% |
5% |
4% |
|
Refused [Vol] |
1% |
1% |
2% |
1% |
|
Have you ever owned any cryptocurrency, NFTs, or other similar digital products? |
|||||
|
|
Liberal |
Moderate |
Conservative |
Progressive |
MAGA |
|
Yes |
12% |
15% |
15% |
12% |
14% |
|
No |
84% |
81% |
81% |
87% |
78% |
|
Don’t Know what those are |
3% |
4% |
3% |
– |
7% |
|
Refused [Vol] |
1% |
– |
1% |
1% |
1% |
|
Have you ever owned any cryptocurrency, NFTs, or other similar digital products? |
|||||
|
|
All |
18-30 |
31-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
|
Yes |
15% |
29% |
20% |
13% |
2% |
|
No |
80% |
66% |
75% |
82% |
92% |
|
Don’t Know what those are |
4% |
4% |
4% |
3% |
6% |
|
Refused [Vol] |
1% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
– |
|
In November’s Presidential election, do you intend to vote for Kamala Harris, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, for someone else, or do you not plan on voting? |
|||||
|
|
All |
18-30 |
31-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
|
Kamala Harris |
50% |
52% |
46% |
48% |
57% |
|
Donald Trump |
43% |
41% |
45% |
44% |
41% |
|
Someone Else |
7% |
7% |
9% |
8% |
2% |
|
Have you ever owned any cryptocurrency, NFTs, or other similar digital products? |
|||||
|
|
Women |
Women 18-30 |
Women 31-44 |
Women 45-64 |
Women 65+ |
|
Yes |
9% |
16% |
16% |
8% |
1% |
|
No |
84% |
75% |
77% |
87% |
91% |
|
Don’t Know what those are |
6% |
8% |
6% |
4% |
8% |
|
Refused [Vol] |
1% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
– |
|
Have you ever owned any cryptocurrency, NFTs, or other similar digital products? |
|||||
|
|
Men |
Men 18-30 |
Men 31-44 |
Men 45-64 |
Men 65+ |
|
Yes |
22% |
42% |
26% |
19% |
4% |
|
No |
75% |
55% |
72% |
77% |
92% |
|
Don’t Know what those are |
2% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
4% |
|
Refused [Vol] |
1% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
– |
|
In November’s Presidential election, do you intend to vote for Kamala Harris, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, for someone else, or do you not plan on voting? |
|||||
|
|
Men |
Men 18-30 |
Men 31-44 |
Men 45-64 |
Men 65+ |
|
Harris |
42% |
43% |
43% |
41% |
44% |
|
Trump |
50% |
49% |
48% |
50% |
55% |
|
Someone Else |
8% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
2% |
|
In November’s Presidential election, do you intend to vote for Kamala Harris, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, for someone else, or do you not plan on voting? |
|||||
|
|
Women |
Women 18-30 |
Women 31-44 |
Women 45-64 |
Women 65+ |
|
Harris |
56% |
59% |
48% |
54% |
65% |
|
Trump |
38% |
32% |
44% |
39% |
33% |
|
Someone Else |
6% |
8% |
8% |
6% |
2% |
Dan Cassino
Executive Director, FDU Poll
973.896.7072/ dcassino@fdu.edu