FDU Poll finds Newark Residents Back Baraka for Governor
For Immediate Release
Contact:
Dan Cassino
Executive Director, FDU Poll
973.896.7072/ dcassino@fdu.edu
Newark Residents Back Baraka for Governor
Fulop and Sherrill in second tier; views on the state of the city are more mixed
Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, NJ, May 29, 2024 – Mayor Ras Baraka is the clear choice of Newark residents in an early poll of next year’s crowded Democratic gubernatorial primary. According to the latest results from the FDU Poll, Baraka has high levels of approval among residents, but opinions are mixed on the direction of the city.
Overall, 51 percent of Democrats (and independents who say that the lean towards the Democratic Party) in Newark say that they plan to back Baraka in next year’s Democratic gubernatorial primary, putting him well ahead of the other listed candidates. Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop and Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill of the nearby 11th district, are in the second tier, with about 5 percent support each. Congressman Josh Gottheimer and former State Senator Steve Sweeney each have minimal support. Neither Gottheimer nor Sherrill have announced if they will run, and there are several others who may announce a candidacy before next year’s race. A large portion of Newark Democrats (36 percent) say that they don’t know who they’ll vote for.
“Newark is the biggest city in the state, and that’s a lot of Democratic voters” said Dan Cassino, a professor of Government and Politics at Fairleigh Dickinson, and the Executive Director of the poll. “Having a strong base in Newark is a good place for Baraka to start, but his challenge is going to be extending that support to other primary voters.”
Regardless of whether they say that they would vote for him, 47 percent of Newark residents say that Baraka would make a good governor, with only 25 percent saying that he wouldn’t. Black residents of Newark are the most likely to say that Baraka would make a good governor (57 percent), much higher than his numbers among Hispanic residents (38 percent) or members of other racial groups (mostly whites and Asian-Americans, 35 percent).
Overall, 47 percent of Newark residents say that they approve of the job Baraka is doing as Mayor, with 23 percent saying that they disapprove, and the remaining 30 percent unsure. This approval number outpaces views of the state of the city: only 36 percent of residents say that Newark has gotten better as a place to live over the past two years, with 25 percent saying that it’s gotten worse. Residents of the North (39 percent) and South Wards (41 percent) are the most likely to say that it’s gotten better, while residents of the East Ward are the most down on the city: 43 percent say that it’s gotten worse, with only 22 percent saying that it’s gotten better.
“Newark residents aren’t thrilled with the state of the city overall, but they aren’t blaming Baraka,” said Cassino.
The poll also asked about some specific issues facing the city. A majority of residents (53 percent) say that there are more homeless on the streets than in the past, with residents of the East ward being the most likely (60 percent) to say that numbers had increased. Just 13 percent say that they see fewer homeless people on the streets. Thirty-seven percent of residents say that they’ve been approached by an aggressive panhandler in the past two years.
“Homelessness has become a quality-of-life issue in cities around the country,” said Cassino. “It’s one of the most visible signs of urban disorder, and residents really respond to it.”
Another of the major issues facing Newark has been the continuing presence of lead in the water supply. When ingested through water or other means, high levels of lead can cause serious medical problems, including brain damage, especially in children. After authorities found elevated levels of lead in the water at Newark schools in 2016, the city began a program to replace all of the lead water pipes in the city. While the city had declared that the lead pipes had been removed, an audit earlier this year found that some piping had not been replaced. The city blamed a vendor, who they declined to name, for the mistake.
Just ten percent of Newark residents say that the lead piping in the city has been completely removed, with 39 percent saying it’s been “mostly” removed. Twenty percent say that the lead pipes are mostly or completely still in place. A large portion of residents (31 percent) say that they don’t know if the pipes have been removed or didn’t want to answer the question.
“The fact that fewer than half of residents know about one of Baraka’s major policy successes points to a real problem with getting the word out,” said Cassino. “It doesn’t matter what you do, if people don’t know about it.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted between April 10 and May 8, 2024, using an RDD sample of Newark residents carried out by Braun Research of Princeton, New Jersey. Respondents were contacted via either live caller telephone interviews, or text-to-web surveys sent to cellular phones, resulting in an overall sample of 1120 Newark Residents. 131 of the surveys were carried out via live caller telephone interviews on landlines, 300 on live caller interviews to cell phones, and the remainder (689) were done on a web platform via weblinks sent via SMS to cell phones. Surveys were conducted only in English.
The data were weighted to be representative of the population of Newark Residents, according to data from the 2020 US Census. The weights used, like all weights, balance the demographic characteristics of the sample to match known population parameters. The weighted results used here are balanced to match parameters for sex, age, education and race/ethnicity.
SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS extension module that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure, was used to produce final weights. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis helps to ensure that the demographic characteristics of the sample approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population. The size of these weights is used to construct the measure of design effects, which indicate the extent to which the reported results are being driven by the weights applied to the data, rather than found in the data itself. Simply put, these design effects tell us how many additional respondents would have been needed to get the weighted number of respondents across weighted categories: larger design effects indicate greater levels of under-representation in the data. In this case, calculated design effects are approximately 1.4.
All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 1120 Newark residents is +/-3.0 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Including the design effects, the margin of error would be +/-4.4 percentage points, though the figure not including them is much more commonly reported.
This error calculation does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, differences in translated forms, or context effects. While such errors are known to exist, they are often unquantifiable within a particular survey, and all efforts, such as randomization and extensive pre-testing of items, have been used to minimize them.
The FDU Poll is a member of the AAPOR Transparency Initiative and is devoted to ensuring that our results are presented in such a way that anyone can quickly and easily get all of the information that they may need to evaluate the validity of our surveys. We believe that transparency is the key to building trust in the work of high-quality public opinion research, and necessary to push our industry forward.
Weighted Telephone Sample Characteristics
1120 Newark Residents
Figures do not include individuals who declined to answer demographic items.
Man 49% N = 554
Woman 50% N = 563
Some Other Way 1% N = 3
18-30 27% N = 304
31-44 27% N = 297
45-64 31% N = 350
65+ 15% N = 168
Black 48% N = 539
Hispanic/Latino/a 36% N = 406
All other 16% N = 174
Democrat or Lean 65% N = 583
Independent 14% N = 125
Republican or Lean 21% N = 186
Question Wording and Order
We’d like to start off by asking you some questions about your neighborhood.
P1. Thinking back over the last two years, would you say Newark has gotten better as a place to live, gotten worse, or there hasn’t been much change?
- Better
- Worse
- No Change
- Don’t Know [Vol]
- Refused [Vol]
P2. When you are walking in your neighborhood during the day, do you feel:
- Very Safe
- Somewhat Safe
- Not Very Safe
- Not Safe at All
- Don’t Know [Vol]
- Refused [Vol]
P3. When you are walking in your neighborhood at night, do you feel:
- Very Safe
- Somewhat Safe
- Not Very Safe
- Not Safe at All
- Don’t Know [Vol]
- Refused [Vol]
P4. Thinking about the area where you live, how would you rate the job the Newark Police are doing serving people in your neighborhood?
- Excellent
- Good
- Fair
- Poor
- Don’t Know [Vol]
- Refused [Vol]
P5. There has long been concern about lead pipes in Newark causing lead poisoning in residents, especially children. To the best of your knowledge, have the lead pipes in Newark been completely removed, mostly removed, or are they mostly or completely still in place?
- Completely removed
- Mostly removed
- Mostly/completely still in place
- Don’t Know
- Refused
P6. For each of the following statements about the Newark Police Department today, say if you Strongly Disagree, Somewhat Disagree, Somewhat Agree, or Strongly Agree [Randomly flip order of response options by participant for the whole set; Shuffle order of items]
- There is corruption in the Newark PD
- Newark Police act professionally
- Younger Newark Police Officers are better than older Newark Police Officers
- The Newark Police don’t respect people like me
- Strongly Disagree
- Somewhat Disagree
- Somewhat Agree
- Strongly Agree
- Don’t Know [Vol]
- Refused [Vol]
Now, we’d like to ask you about any interactions you might have had with Newark Police.
P7. In the last 2 years, have you been stopped or questioned by the Newark Police Department?
- Yes
- No
- Don’t Know [Vol]
- Refused [Vol]
P8. [Ask only if D1 is 1] Please tell us about that interaction with the Newark Police Department. For each statement, say if you Strongly Disagree, Somewhat Disagree, Somewhat Agree, or Strongly Agree [Randomly flip order of response options by participant for the whole set]
- The officer(s) were polite when interacting with me.
- I felt safe in the presence of the officer(s).
- I had confidence that the police officer(s) were following the law.
- Strongly Disagree
- Somewhat Disagree
- Somewhat Agree
- Strongly Agree
- Don’t Know [Vol]
- Refused [Vol]
P9. If you witnessed a crime or knew about a crime that took place, how likely would you be to report it to the Newark Police?
- Very Likely
- Somewhat Likely
- Somewhat Unlikely
- Very Unlikely
- Don’t Know [Vol]
- Refused [Vol]
P10. If you were asked by the Newark Police to assist in an investigation, how likely would you be to participate (for example, by providing information or being a witness,)?
- Very Likely
- Somewhat Likely
- Somewhat Unlikely
- Very Unlikely
- Don’t Know [Vol]
- Refused [Vol]
P11. In the last two years, do you think that there are more homeless people on the streets of Newark, fewer homeless, or is it about the same as it was two years ago?
- More Homeless
- Fewer Homeless
- About the Same
- Don’t Know [Vol]
- Refused [Vol]
P12. While most people asking for money on the street do not act aggressively, some do. In the last two years, have you been approached by someone aggressively asking for money?
- Yes
- No
- Don’t Know [Vol]
- Refused [Vol]
Moving on to politics in Newark…
V1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Ras Baraka is doing as Mayor of Newark, or are you not sure?
- Approve
- Disapprove
- Not Sure
- Don’t Know [Vol]
- Refused [Vol]
V2. In politics today, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or something else?
- Democrat
- Republican
- Independent [ASK D1A]
- Something Else/Other [ASK D1A]
- DK/Ref
V2A. [Ask only if D1 is 3 or 4] Which way do you lean?
- Democrat
- Republican
- Independent
- Something Else/Other
- DK/Ref
V2B. In addition, which of the following terms would you use to describe your political views? You can choose as many as you like. [Shuffle Order]
- Liberal
- Moderate
- Conservative
- Socialist
- Progressive
- Libertarian
- America First
- Nationalist
V3. [Ask only Democrats or Lean Democrats] Next year, there will be a Democratic primary election for Governor here in New Jersey. There are expected to be a lot of candidates running, some of whom have already announced, while others haven’t yet announced. Who would you support in the Democratic Gubernatorial primary, if the race were between… [Shuffle order of candidates]
- Newark Mayor Ras Baraka
- Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop
- Congresswoman Mikie Sherill
- Congressman Josh Gottheimer
- Former State Senator Steve Sweeney
- Don’t Know [Vol]
- Refused [Vol]
V4. Regardless of whether or not you’re planning to vote for him, do you think Mayor Baraka would make a good governor for New Jersey?
- Yes, would make a good governor
- No, would not make a good governor
- Don’t Know [Vol]
- Refused [Vol]
Further Questions Held for Later Release
Release Tables
|
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Ras Baraka is doing as Mayor of Newark, or are you not sure? |
||||
|
|
All |
Black |
Hispanic |
Other |
|
Approve |
47% |
52% |
41% |
44% |
|
Disapprove |
23% |
21% |
25% |
24% |
|
[Vol] Don’t Know/ Refused |
30% |
27% |
34% |
32% |
|
Regardless of whether or not you’re planning to vote for him, do you think Mayor Baraka would make a good governor for New Jersey? |
||||
|
|
All |
Black |
Hispanic |
Other |
|
Approve |
47% |
57% |
38% |
35% |
|
Disapprove |
25% |
21% |
26% |
37% |
|
[Vol] Don’t Know/ Refused |
28% |
21% |
36% |
28% |
|
Who would you support in the Democratic Primary for Governor next year? |
|||||
|
|
All |
Under 30 |
31-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
|
Newark Mayor Ras Baraka |
51% |
40% |
53% |
52% |
55% |
|
Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop |
5% |
5% |
8% |
5% |
3% |
|
Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill |
5% |
6% |
4% |
5% |
8% |
|
Congressman Josh Gottheimer |
1% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
|
|
Fmr. State Senator Steve Sweeney |
2% |
2% |
4% |
1% |
3% |
|
[Vol] Don’t Know/ Refused |
36% |
45% |
32% |
34% |
31% |
|
Who would you support in the Democratic Primary for Governor next year? [Only Democrats or Leaners] |
||||
|
|
All |
Black |
Hispanic |
Other |
|
Newark Mayor Ras Baraka |
51% |
59% |
39% |
37% |
|
Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop |
5% |
3% |
6% |
16% |
|
Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill |
5% |
5% |
5% |
12% |
|
Congressman Josh Gottheimer |
1% |
1% |
1% |
4% |
|
Fmr. State Senator Steve Sweeney |
2% |
2% |
3% |
|
|
[Vol] Don’t Know/ Refused |
36% |
30% |
46% |
32% |
|
Thinking back over the last two years, would you say Newark has gotten better as a place to live, gotten worse, or there hasn’t been much change? |
|||||
|
|
All |
Under 30 |
31-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
|
Better |
36% |
32% |
32% |
38% |
42% |
|
Worse |
25% |
29% |
28% |
26% |
13% |
|
Hasn’t Been Much Change |
36% |
37% |
36% |
31% |
43% |
|
[Vol] Don’t Know/ Refused |
3% |
3% |
4% |
5% |
2% |
|
Thinking back over the last two years, would you say Newark has gotten better as a place to live, gotten worse, or there hasn’t been much change? |
|||||
|
|
North |
East |
South |
West |
Central |
|
Better |
39% |
22% |
41% |
35% |
31% |
|
Worse |
27% |
43% |
19% |
18% |
28% |
|
Hasn’t Been Much Change |
31% |
31% |
35% |
42% |
38% |
|
[Vol] Don’t Know/ Refused |
3% |
3% |
6% |
4% |
3% |
|
Do you think that there are more homeless people on the streets of Newark, fewer homeless, or is it about the same as it was two years ago? |
|||||
|
|
North |
East |
South |
West |
Central |
|
More Homeless |
50% |
60% |
51% |
54% |
55% |
|
Fewer Homeless |
15% |
9% |
15% |
12% |
10% |
|
About the Same |
30% |
26% |
29% |
28% |
30% |
|
[Vol] Don’t Know/ Refused |
5% |
5% |
5% |
6% |
6% |
|
Do you think that there are more homeless people on the streets of Newark, fewer homeless, or is it about the same as it was two years ago? |
||||
|
|
All |
Black |
Hispanic |
Other |
|
More Homeless |
53% |
52% |
58% |
43% |
|
Fewer Homeless |
13% |
15% |
11% |
13% |
|
About the Same |
29% |
26% |
28% |
38% |
|
[Vol] Don’t Know/ Refused |
5% |
6% |
4% |
6% |
|
While most people asking for money on the street do not act aggressively, some do. In the last two years, have you been approached by someone aggressively asking for money? |
||||
|
|
All |
Black |
Hispanic |
Other |
|
Yes |
37% |
34% |
40% |
38% |
|
No |
61% |
64% |
57% |
59% |
|
[Vol] Don’t Know/ Refused |
2% |
2% |
3% |
2% |
|
To the best of your knowledge, have the lead pipes in Newark been completely removed, mostly removed, or are they mostly or completely still in place? |
||||
|
|
All |
Black |
Hispanic |
Other |
|
Completely Removed |
10% |
9% |
9% |
17% |
|
Mostly Removed |
39% |
41% |
33% |
48% |
|
Mostly/Completely Still in Place |
20% |
19% |
24% |
14% |
|
[Vol] Don’t Know/ Refused |
31% |
31% |
34% |
21% |