FDU Poll finds Trump Support Depends on Being Seen as Masculine

For Immediate Release: October 16, 2024

Contact:                           

Dan Cassino 

Executive Director, FDU Poll    

973.896.7072/ dcassino@fdu.edu

 

Trump Support Depends on Being Seen as Masculine

Harris holds a three-point edge, within poll’s margin of error

Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, NJ, October 16, 2024 – Voters nationally give Vice President and Democratic Presidential nominee Kamala Harris an edge over former President Donald Trump in November’s election by a three-point margin (50 to 47), but gender remains central to the race. If elected, Harris would be the first woman President: but according to the latest results from the FDU Poll, it’s perceptions of Trump’s masculinity that are key to the election, with his support depending on the 41 percent of voters who say that he’s “completely masculine.”

“Trump’s appeal is based on his performance of a certain kind of masculinity,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of Government and Politics at Fairleigh Dickinson, and the Executive Director of the poll. “When voters don’t buy into that performance, his support plummets, even among Republicans.”

As the campaign goes into its final weeks, both candidates have secured the support of their respective bases. Harris has the support of 95 percent of Democrats (including independents who lean Democratic), 92 percent of self-identified liberals and 87 percent of progressive voters. Trump holds 93 percent of Republicans (including leaners), 90 percent of MAGA voters, and 82 percent of self-identified conservatives. Once leaners are grouped in with their parties, there are relatively few true independents left.

Harris also has a significant lead among the portion of voters (8 percent) who identify as being members of the LGBTQ+ community, among whom she has a massive 58-point edge, 78 to 20. Among other voters, Trump has a three-point lead, 50 to 47.

In the survey, likely voters were asked to rate both the masculinity and the femininity of the major party candidates for President as well as their running mates. While this campaign has featured frequent discussion of how the candidates are attempting to perform masculinity and femininity, this is the first survey to directly measure how voters perceive the gender of the candidates.

Forty-one percent of likely voters say that Trump is “completely masculine,” including 68 percent of Republicans, but just 14 percent of Democrats. Democrats are much more likely to say that the former President is “not at all masculine,” with 33 percent saying so, compared to just 2 percent of Republicans. Most voters (65 percent) say that Trump is “not at all feminine,” but 50 percent of Democrats say that he’s at least a little feminine, and seven percent of voters (mostly Democrats) rate him as “completely feminine.”

Harris, on the other hand, is viewed by most voters as being both somewhat masculine and not completely feminine. Fifty-four percent say that she is at least a little masculine, with little variation across party lines, and only 32 percent say that she’s “completely feminine.” Democrats (40 percent) are more likely than Republicans (26 percent) to say that the Vice-President is “completely feminine,” but the differences are small relative to views of Trump’s masculinity.

“Voters tend to associate masculine qualities with leadership qualities, so female candidates have to try and be seen as at least somewhat masculine to be seen as leaders,” said Cassino. “When Harris talks about owning a gun, for instance, she’s claiming masculine traits, and voters seem to be buying it.”

While support for both candidates is correlated with perceptions of their masculinity and femininity, the relationship is much stronger for Trump. Eighty-four percent of voters who say that Trump is “completely masculine” also say that they’ll vote for him, compared to just 24 percent of those who say that he’s not completely masculine. Similarly, Trump has 72 percent support among voters who say that he’s not at all feminine, but only 37 percent support among voters who say that he has any feminine traits.

In contrast, support for Harris is high among voters who say that she’s “completely feminine” (67 percent), but not that much higher than her 46 percent support among those who say that she’s not completely feminine. Just so, she has 50 percent support among those who say that she’s at least a little masculine, and 54 percent support among those who say that she’s not at all masculine.

“The demands on Harris and on Trump are very different,” said Cassino. “Female candidates have to be seen as both masculine and feminine, but for Trump, being seen as being at all feminine is just disastrous for his support.”

Of course, perceptions of the candidates’ masculinity and femininity are tied to partisanship, but the importance of perceptions of Trump’s masculinity on his support is evident even with partisan groups. Among the majority of Republicans who say that Trump is “completely masculine,” Trump has almost unanimous support (98 percent); but among those Republicans who place him anywhere else on the masculinity scale, his support drops to 84 percent. Similarly, Trump has the support of 18 percent of Democrats who say that he’s “completely masculine,” but basically no support (1 percent) among Democrats who say that he’s not at the far end of the masculinity scale. In contrast, once party is taken into account, views of Harris’s femininity have almost no significant effect on her support.

“When the Harris campaign suggests that Trump can’t focus on questions, or doesn’t have the energy to campaign, they’re attacking his masculine bona fides,” said Cassino. “His support depends on people thinking that he’s masculine, so they have to cut that perception if they want to pull into the lead.”

Among the Vice-Presidential nominees, Senator JD Vance is perceived as being more masculine than the Democratic nominee, Governor Tim Walz. Thirty-eight percent of voters see Vance as being “completely masculine,” compared with 27 percent for Walz. About the same number of voters (11 percent) rate either candidate as being “not at all masculine.”

Vance is also more likely to be rated as “not at all feminine” (56 percent) than Walz (41 percent), but there is no sign that these perceptions have any impact on vote choice.

“Both candidates for Vice-President are performing masculinity, but in very different ways,” said Cassino. “Vance’s more traditional style seems to be more convincing to voters as a form of masculinity than Walz’s more compassionate take.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted between October 8 17 and October 14, 2024, using a voter list of registered voters nationwide carried out by Braun Research of Princeton, New Jersey. Respondents were contacted via either live caller telephone interviews, or text-to-web surveys sent to cellular phones, resulting in an overall sample of 806 registered voters nationally. 532 of the surveys were carried out via live caller telephone interviews to landlines (30%) and cellphones (70%) and the remainder (274) were done on a web platform via weblinks sent via SMS to cell phones. Surveys were conducted only in English.

The data were weighted to be representative of the population of voters in the 2020 US Presidential Election, according to data from AP VoteCast. The weights used, like all weights, balance the demographic characteristics of the sample to match known population parameters. The weighted results used here are balanced to match parameters for sex, age, education and race/ethnicity. Individuals were considered likely voters in the upcoming Presidential Election if they (a) were registered voters, who (b) said that they planned to vote in the upcoming election, and (c) had a candidate preference in that election.

SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS extension module that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure, was used to produce final weights. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis helps to ensure that the demographic characteristics of the sample approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population. The size of these weights is used to construct the measure of design effects, which indicate the extent to which the reported results are being driven by the weights applied to the data, rather than found in the data itself. Simply put, these design effects tell us how many additional respondents would have been needed to get the weighted number of respondents across weighted categories: larger design effects indicate greater levels of under-representation in the data. In this case, calculated design effects are approximately 1.3, largely driven by the weights used on the race/ethnicity variable.

All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 806 registered voters is +/-3.5 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Including the design effects, the margin of error would be +/-4.6 percentage points, though the figure not including them is much more commonly reported.

This error calculation does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, differences in translated forms, or context effects. While such errors are known to exist, they are often unquantifiable within a particular survey, and all efforts, such as randomization and extensive pre-testing of items, have been used to minimize them.

The FDU Poll is a proud member of the AAPOR Transparency Initiative and is devoted to ensuring that our results are presented in such a way that anyone can quickly and easily get all of the information that they may need to evaluate the validity of our surveys. We believe that transparency is the key to building trust in the work of high-quality public opinion research, and necessary to push our industry forward.

Weighted Telephone Sample Characteristics

806 Registered Voters Nationally

Figures do not include individuals who declined to answer demographic items.

 

Man                                

46%                 N = 347

Woman                            

53%                 N = 399

Some Other Way          

1%                 N = 7

 

LGBTQ+                       

8%                 N = 62

 

18-30                          

15%                N = 114

31-44                          

23%                 N = 171

45-64                          

38%                 N = 288

65+                              

24%                 N = 180

 

White                                           

67%                N = 507

Black                                              

12%                N = 92

Hispanic/Latino/a                                     

13%                N = 94

Asian                                       

3%                  N = 20

Other/Multi-racial                                    

3%                  N = 21

 

No college degree                      

58%                N = 435

College degree or more             

42%                N = 314

 

Democrat (including leaners)    

48%                N = 347

Independent (no lean)                

7%                  N = 51

College degree or more             

45%                N = 323

 

Question Wording and Order

P1. [Shuffle order of top candidates] In November’s Presidential election, do you intend to vote for Kamala [COMMA-lah] Harris, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, for someone else, or do you not plan on voting?

1. Kamala [COMMA-lah] Harris, the Democrat
2. Donald Trump, the Republican
3. Someone else
4. Not going to vote
5. [Vol] Don’t know/ Refused

P2. Regardless of whether they’re men or women, candidates from political office often have a combination of masculine and feminine traits. Some might be totally masculine, or totally feminine, and some might be somewhat masculine and somewhat feminine. We’d like to know how you would rate this year’s major party candidates for President and Vice-President on their masculinity and femininity. W

[Shuffle Order of Candidates; Shuffle order of masculine/feminine/liberal but keep consistent across the candidates. So, four groups of rs: masc/fem/liberal, fem/masc/liberal, liberal/fem/masc, liberal/masc/fem]

1. How Masculine would you say that Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump is?
2. How Feminine would you say that Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump is?
3. How Liberal or Conservative would you say that Trump is?
4. How Masculine would you say that Democratic Presidential nominee Kamala Harris is?
5. How Feminine would you say that Democratic Presidential nominee Kamala Harris is?
6. How Liberal or Conservative would you say that Harris is?
7. How Masculine would you say that Republican Vice-Presidential nominee JD Vance is?
8. How Feminine would you say that Republican Vice-Presidential nominee JD Vance is?
9. How Liberal or Conservative would you say that Vance is?
10. How Masculine would you say that Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee Tim Walz is?
11. How Feminine would you say that Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee Tim Walz is?
12. How Liberal or Conservative would you say that Walz is?

 

 

1. Completely Masculine/Feminine
2. Mostly Masculine/Feminine
3. Somewhat Masculine/Feminine
4. Not Very Masculine/Feminine
5. Not at All Masculine/Feminine
6. Not Sure
7. [Don’t Know]
8. [Refused]

For Liberal/Conservative:

1. Very Liberal
2. Somewhat Liberal
3. Slightly Liberal
4. Slightly Conservative
5. Somewhat Conservative
6. Very Conservative
7. [Don’t Know]
8. [Refused]

Intervening questions withheld for future release

 

Just a few more questions, for statistical purposes

D1. In politics today, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or something else? 

1. Democrat                   
2. Republican 
3. Independent  [ASK D1A]                                                                                
4. Something Else/Other                                   
5. DK/Ref [vol]

D1A. [Ask only if D1 is 3] Which way do you lean?

1. Democrat 
2. Republican
3. Independent                                                              
4. Something Else/Other                                   
5. DK/Ref [vol]

D1B. In addition, which of the following terms would you use to describe your political views? You can choose as many as you like. [Shuffle Order]

1. Liberal
2. Moderate
3. Conservative
4. Socialist
5. Progressive
6. Libertarian
7. Make America Great Again or MAGA
8. Nationalist

D2A. To ensure we are reaching people of all ages, would you please tell me your age?

            ____    (ENTER AGE: 98=98+, 99 = REFUSED)

            [IF Don’t Know/REFUSED IN QD1, ASK:] 

D2B.  Would you be willing to tell us whether it’s between…?

1. Under 30
2. 31 to 44
3. 45 to 64
4. 65 or over
5. [Refused]

D3. What was the last grade in school you completed? [CODE TO LIST]

1. Did not complete High School
2. High School Diploma or equivalent
3. Vocational or Trade School
4. Some college, but no degree
5. Associates, or other 2 year degree
6. Bachelor’s Degree
7. Graduate work, such as Law, MBA, Medical School, or similar
8. Refused (VOL)

D4. How would you describe your sex? Do you describe yourself as …

1. A Man
2. A Woman
3. Some other way
4. [DK/REF]

D5. Do you consider yourself to be a member of the LGBTQ plus community? It’s OK if you don’t know what that is.

1. Yes
2. No
3. Don’t Know what that is
4. [Refused]

D6. How would you describe your racial and ethnic background? You can pick as many as you’d like.

1. White
2. Black
3. Asian 
4. Hispanic/Latino/a/Spanish
5. Other or Multi-Racial
6. [Dk/Ref]

[We’re doing something different with this one, and having separate masculine/feminine scales, so there’s two questions, presented in random order]

D7. The traits that we see as being masculine or feminine are largely determined by society, and have changed dramatically over time. As a result, everyone has some combination of masculine and feminine traits, which may or may not correspond with whether they’re male or female. How do you see yourself?

1. How Masculine would you say that you are?
2. How Feminine would you say that you are?

 

1. Completely Masculine/Feminine
2. Mostly Masculine/Feminine
3. Somewhat Masculine/Feminine
4. Not Very Masculine/Feminine
5. Not at All Masculine/Feminine
6. [Dk/Ref]

 

 

 

Release Tables

 

Note: respondents who did not have a preference or said that they would not vote in the upcoming election were not considered likely voters, and are excluded from these tables.

 

In November’s Presidential election, do you intend to vote for Kamala Harris, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, for someone else, or do you not plan on voting?
	All	Dem or Lean	Indp	Rep or Lean
Kamala Harris	50%	95%	34%	6%
Donald Trump	47%	3%	53%	93%
Someone Else	3%	2%	13%	1%

 

In November’s Presidential election, do you intend to vote for Kamala Harris, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, for someone else, or do you not plan on voting?
	All	Liberal	Moderate	Conservative
Kamala Harris	50%	92%	59%	17%
Donald Trump	47%	7%	39%	82%
Someone Else	3%	1%	2%	1%

 

In November’s Presidential election, do you intend to vote for Kamala Harris, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, for someone else, or do you not plan on voting?
	All	Progressive	MAGA
Kamala Harris	50%	87%	10%
Donald Trump	47%	11%	90%
Someone Else	3%	2%	0%

 

In November’s Presidential election, do you intend to vote for Kamala Harris, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, for someone else, or do you not plan on voting?
	All	Men	Women	LGBTQ+	Not LGBTQ+
Kamala Harris	50%	40%	58%	78%	47%
Donald Trump	47%	56%	40%	20%	50%
Someone Else	3%	3%	2%	2%	3%

 

How Masculine Would You Say Republican Presidential Nominee Donald Trump is?
	All	Dem or Lean	Indp	Rep or Lean
Completely Masculine	41%	14%	48%	68%
Mostly Masculine	20%	15%	27%	24%
Somewhat Masculine	13%	21%	9%	4%
Not Very Masculine	9%	17%	2%	2%
Not At All Masculine	17%	33%	14%	2%

 

How Feminine Would You Say Republican Presidential Nominee Donald Trump is?
	All	Dem or Lean	Indp	Rep or Lean
Completely Feminine	7%	12%	5%	1%
Mostly Feminine	2%	3%	5%	2%
Somewhat Feminine	10%	17%	5%	4%
Not Very Feminine	16%	18%	21%	13%
Not At All Feminine	65%	50%	65%	80%

 

How Masculine Would You Say Democratic Presidential Nominee Kamala Harris is?
	All	Dem or Lean	Indp	Rep or Lean
Completely Masculine	2%	2%	2%	3%
Mostly Masculine	5%	4%	7%	6%
Somewhat Masculine	22%	29%	23%	14%
Not Very Masculine	25%	22%	39%	24%
Not At All Masculine	46%	43%	30%	53%

 

How Feminine Would You Say Democratic Presidential Nominee Kamala Harris is?
	All	Dem or Lean	Indp	Rep or Lean
Completely Feminine	32%	40%	16%	26%
Mostly Feminine	34%	37%	34%	28%
Somewhat Feminine	24%	20%	25%	28%
Not Very Feminine	7%	2%	9%	14%
Not At All Feminine	3%	1%	16%	4%

 

How Masculine Would You Say Republican Vice Presidential Nominee JD Vance is?
	All	Dem or Lean	Indp	Rep or Lean
Completely Masculine	38%	15%	33%	60%
Mostly Masculine	20%	14%	26%	25%
Somewhat Masculine	18%	28%	21%	7%
Not Very Masculine	12%	21%	7%	4%
Not At All Masculine	12%	22%	14%	3%

 

How Feminine Would You Say Republican Vice Presidential Nominee JD Vance is?
	All	Dem or Lean	Indp	Rep or Lean
Completely Feminine	7%	12%	5%	2%
Mostly Feminine	5%	8%	8%	1%
Somewhat Feminine	15%	24%	8%	7%
Not Very Feminine	18%	22%	11%	14%
Not At All Feminine	56%	34%	68%	76%

 

How Masculine Would You Say Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee Tim Walz is?
	All	Dem or Lean	Indp	Rep or Lean
Completely Masculine	27%	43%	24%	11%
Mostly Masculine	26%	38%	22%	13%
Somewhat Masculine	18%	15%	20%	21%
Not Very Masculine	18%	2%	22%	36%
Not At All Masculine	11%	3%	12%	19%

 

How Feminine Would You Say Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee Tim Walz is?
	All	Dem or Lean	Indp	Rep or Lean
Completely Feminine	8%	2%	12%	14%
Mostly Feminine	9%	2%	9%	15%
Somewhat Feminine	23%	11%	26%	34%
Not Very Feminine	19%	25%	16%	14%
Not At All Feminine	41%	59%	37%	24%

 

In November’s Presidential election, do you intend to vote for Kamala Harris, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, for someone else, or do you not plan on voting?
	Trump “Completely Masculine”	Trump not “Completely Masculine”	Trump Not at All Feminine	Trump at least a little feminine
Kamala Harris	14%	74%	72%	37%
Donald Trump	84%	24%	25%	62%
Someone Else	2%	2%	3%	1%

 

In November’s Presidential election, do you intend to vote for Kamala Harris, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, for someone else, or do you not plan on voting?
	Harris “Completely Feminine”	Harris not “Completely Feminine”	Harris Not at All Masculine	Harris at least a little Masculine
Kamala Harris	67%	46%	54%	50%
Donald Trump	31%	51%	43%	49%
Someone Else	2%	3%	3%	1%

 

In November’s Presidential election, do you intend to vote for Kamala Harris, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, for someone else, or do you not plan on voting?
	Republican, Trump “Completely Masculine”	Republican, Trump not “Completely Masculine”	Democrat, Trump “Completely Masculine”	Democrat, Trump not “Completely Masculine”
Kamala Harris	2%	14%	80%	98%
Donald Trump	98%	84%	18%	1%
Someone Else	0%	2%	3%	1%

 

In November’s Presidential election, do you intend to vote for Kamala Harris, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, for someone else, or do you not plan on voting?
	Republican, Harris “Completely Feminine”	Republican, Harris not “Completely Feminine”	Democrat, Harris “Completely Feminine”	Democrat, Harris not “Completely Feminine”
Kamala Harris	13%	4%	98%	93%
Donald Trump	87%	95%	1%	4%
Someone Else	0%	1%	1%	3%